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#11
04-11-2005, 10:06 AM
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Re: Huge draw. Huge hand. Check it?
Bet.
Granted you picked up a redraw to the nut flush on the turn but anyone with a K is going to bet here, maybe the Kh will try for a CR figuring his redraw is good (i.e. he can afford giving a naked heart a look). But even so, I think any K is betting this turn rather than giving a heart (bigger heart, any heart) a free look. Bet, you may get raised but you have quite a few outs if you do. [ QUOTE ] Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: elindauer is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">elindauer caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls. Flop: (13.66 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">elindauer bets</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls. Turn: (8.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG checks, MP3 checks... What are you gonna do? [/ QUOTE ] 
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#13
04-11-2005, 03:11 PM
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Part two.
Ok, some interesting thoughts there. I'd say the fact that it gets checked to me makes it less likely I'm up against a king, as I'd think someone with the straight would be concerned about the three heart board getting checked through. I certainly want money going in when I'm ahead, if possible. Free cards aren't too scary, but eights have outs and of course offsuit kings probably chop up the pot. I'm not far behind against a king, so...
I bet. UTG calls. MP3 raises. The timing of MP3's raise suggested it was slightly more likely than normal that he had a king, not a flush. It's back on you.
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#15
04-11-2005, 03:53 PM
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Re: Part two.
call. it's party 15, no one is folding a king. if you three bet you'll probably lose the other player, which would be bad.
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#16
04-11-2005, 04:10 PM
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Re: Part two.
[ QUOTE ]
I bet. UTG calls. MP3 raises. The timing of MP3's raise suggested it was slightly more likely than normal that he had a king, not a flush. It's back on you. [/ QUOTE ] If UTG is loose, you must 3-bet. If he's not, it's close between 3-betting and calling, but I would then prefer to call. Regardless, your hand is an absolute monster, and though you're likely behind, you have 19 outs to the best hand and probably 3 outs to a chop. Incidentally, if you call and UTG 3-bets, you should cap if it doesn't come back to you capped.
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#17
04-11-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: Part two.
Interesting, that is why I would have checked the turn (check hands with outs, bet hands with no outs), now that you have been raised I would be calling (see very little equity in 3 betting here as; (a) you are most liklet gainst a made hand, and (b) There is no way he is laying down) - on the river if you do not improve I think I still find a call here as the pot is HUGE (did not add up the bets, however seems like 2 many to fold the river)....jmho
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#18
04-11-2005, 05:54 PM
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Re: Huge draw. Huge hand. Check it?
pokenum -h ah as - jd js - kc qs -- ac th qh jh
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing Ac Qh Jh Th cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ah 15 35.71 25 59.52 2 4.76 0.373 Js Jd 1 2.38 39 92.86 2 4.76 0.040 Qs Kc 24 57.14 16 38.10 2 4.76 0.587 pokenum -h ah as - ad kd - js jd -- ac th qh jh Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing Ac Qh Jh Th cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ah 15 35.71 25 59.52 2 4.76 0.373 Ad Kd 24 57.14 16 38.10 2 4.76 0.587 Js Jd 1 2.38 39 92.86 2 4.76 0.040 pokenum -h ah as - ad kd - ks kc -- ac th qh jh Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing Ac Qh Jh Th cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ah 18 42.86 24 57.14 0 0.00 0.429 Ad Kd 0 0.00 18 42.86 24 57.14 0.286 Ks Kc 0 0.00 18 42.86 24 57.14 0.286 pokenum -h ah as - ad kd - kc qc -- ac th qh jh Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing Ac Qh Jh Th cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ah 17 40.48 24 57.14 1 2.38 0.413 Ad Kd 0 0.00 17 40.48 25 59.52 0.294 Kc Qc 0 0.00 17 40.48 25 59.52 0.294 Not hard to see why hero has a bit more EV when both have the straight as opposed to just one opponent having the straight. The question on the play then becomes this: If hero bets, one player check-raises and another player just cold calls the raise (thus concluding that the cold-caller may indeed have a smaller set), should hero re-raise or just smooth call the raise? Lawrence
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#19
04-11-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: Huge draw. Huge hand. Check it?
Argument #1
Check. Betting could induce a check-raise that knocks a player out and you're win more on the river when you hit, especially with a board pair, if you check rather than you betting out here. Your hand's value has decreased in the moment, but the potential on a hierarchical level has risen pretty high. The board will make many people a straight here. Your maximum return comes from more opponents on the river when you hit when they make a lower flush, a set, or a lower full house. Argument #2 If someone had a King, wouldn't they want to protect against a flush? You have the best hand, the best draw. Argument #3 Your odds wouldn't only justify calling a bet here, but also betting and calling a raise, even if this raise has brought you to HU poker. You're betting to more INDUCE action on the river, maybe even an extra bet or two on the river. Question #1: Does betting or checking allow you to win more when you hit on the river? Question #2: Do you call a bet on the river after the second person in the hand folds with your set of Aces?
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