the old "what if you knew everyone's hole cards" argument

djoyce003 · #1 11-03-2005, 05:53 PM

There is some discussion on Paul Phillip's blog about this argument that we've had on here. Apparently Barry Greenstein and Andy Bloch think your ability to win would be around 100% + or - a tiny variation for extreme unluckiness. Interestingly I started a world series tournament on poker academy similar to what paul did in his blog. After the 1st level I had 10x par and could pretty much coast to an easy win....so for all those that think it's nowhere near 100% chance to win...give this program a try. I think you'll see that it's in fact very close to 100%.

Guernica4000 · #2 11-03-2005, 06:30 PM

Do you think it would change if your opponents knew that you know what they were holding?

I would say yes and significantly as they would try to put you all in even taking the worst of it pre-flop.

Thoughts?

Mempho · #3 11-03-2005, 06:40 PM

Absolutely this is correct. If you play an average session, it is almost a guaranteed win.

AaronBrown · #4 11-03-2005, 08:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think it would change if your opponents knew that you know what they were holding? I would say yes and significantly as they would try to put you all in even taking the worst of it pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. If I know you know my hole cards, I either fold or go all in. You still have a big advantage. You pick up most of the blinds, and only go all-in when you have a mathematical advantage. But since I'm only going in on very good hands, you're seldom going to have more than a 55% edge.

You will make money in the long run, but I have a reasonable chance to bust you if we start with equal stacks.

djoyce003 · #5 11-03-2005, 11:56 PM

of course it changes if they know you know the hole cards...but in the examples given, nobody knows you know this. You can't believe the number of pots you pick up with absolutely nothing..if nobody flops top pair, you can pot it and win, and then it's also easy to win monsters because you know when someone has two pair to your set, or someone has a set to your straight...its insane what you can win. After level 2 I had about 20x par...i haven't played to the bitter end, primarily because I don't know how to save mid-tourney and I don't have the time to play one straight through but it seems like it would be insanely easy to win...the only part I think might be difficult is the extreme end if the blinds were overly large and your opponent got lucky a few times...early on in the tournament you have an insane advantage. I was playing 90% of the flops and winning 60% of those.