live 10-25: scare card hits the river

[mikech]

10-25 at borgata, just my 3rd orbit at the table, i have pockets 10s in the sb. 3 players limp, i raise to 125, the bb calls and the limpers drop. haven't played with the bb before, he's a late 20-ish asian guy, my first impression is that he's kinda loosey-goosey. i have ~2200, he has me covered. anyway, flop is JTx, two of a suit. i bet 200, he calls. turn is an offsuit 4, doesn't pair the board. i bet 500, he calls again. river brings a raggy flush card, still no pair on the board. i have a little more than 1300 left.

not too interesting of a hand, but lately this similar scenario has come up a few times and i've been a little unsure how to proceed, being first to act on the river: value/blocking-bet? push is probably bad? check-call? check to induce a bluff?

[Paragon]

Disclaimer: more of a lurker than poster, but here is my thinking.

Two suited JTx flops can be disasters obviously, but especially with how the pot and your stack compare by the river. With your flop and turn bets, it will be excruciatingly difficult to fold your set to a river push if any A,K,Q,9, or flush card hits. This is from trapping yourself with enough pot odds to look up an unknown who could possibly (although unlikely) be betting something you can still beat. This sadly means that on the turn, your opponent is getting great implied odds to call with a lot of draws.

I would start with a full pot bet on the flop (325 I think). There's good reason to stay as aggressive as possible here. If he is able to call, I like checking the turn with the hope of checkraising allin to any sized bet. I see a lot of people make a weak call on flop with a draw in position... Then once they see me feign weakness on the turn, they think they can now steal the pot instead. The best part is this often turns the tables and will trap them with pot odds, and they might call with a poor draw with 1 card to come while you're happily allin with the best of it.

If the villain is smart and takes the free card, well, then it's easier to make your blocking bet on the river and fold to some sort of push. You won't win as much from a missed draw, but it avoids the really nasty situation that you ended up with. Just a thought.

[mgsimpleton]

if he's terrible, i would block bet 500 (same bet!) and if he knows what he's doing, i would block bet like 800... don't want him picking up on weakness of a small bet, but you want to bet enough where he would call with two pair/maybe even a J and where you would have to be really f-ing sure he had a flush if he came over the top so you could fold with a clear conscience.

oh and check calling to induce a bluff is bad because he either has a showdownable hand, a flush draw, or KQ/89, but most people aren't drawing to just a straight cold calling those big bets. most likely if it is a draw, it's a combination draw of some sort and if it isn't he will check behind with glee.

[aggie]

I think any bet here pretty much pot-commits hero which is why i would probably just push allin. Hopefully he calls with a J. If he's got a flush, so be it. This works much better if hero has loose / tricky image and villian has trouble getting away from hands.

[thabadguy]

I agree with aggie here, i dont thnik 800 is a good idea, if he raises, ur gonna muck for 500 more?Just doesnt seem right. If you bet 500, it really smells like weakness, ur gonna hate if he moves in.
I think i move in or check call, moving in seems a lil better hes prolly gonna check behind with a jack or KQ unless hes real tricky(If theres any chance hed call with a worse hand, obv you lose value checking) Somethin like JT, he is betting. If he drew to the flush with those bets, so be it. Checking loses quite a bit of value IMO.
Although 500 seems like a decent blocking bet, you're basically telecasting that you hate that card, and asking a tricky perceptive player to put you in a tough spot.
Losing with sets to a river flush is'nt something to be ashamed at all.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
I think any bet here pretty much pot-commits hero which is why i would probably just push allin. Hopefully he calls with a J. If he's got a flush, so be it. This works much better if hero has loose / tricky image and villian has trouble getting away from hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you can't bet $800 then fold to $500 more. You might as well be signaling to everybody at the table that you can be bluffed at all night if you're not holding the nuts and a scare card hits. If you're going to bet, you might as well push.

[radioheadfan]

I like betting something like 250-300 with the intent of calling any raise from villian. Gets value out of weak Js / lower pockets, and really encourages villian to bluff raise the scare card.

I don't see any way of getting away from the hand against an unknown given all the straight draws on board that he could have missed.

Give him a chance to bluff off some money. Pushing doesn't give him that option.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]

10-25 at borgata, just my 3rd orbit at the table, i have pockets 10s in the sb. 3 players limp, i raise to 125, the bb calls and the limpers drop. haven't played with the bb before, he's a late 20-ish asian guy, my first impression is that he's kinda loosey-goosey. i have ~2200, he has me covered. anyway, flop is JTx, two of a suit. i bet 200, he calls. turn is an offsuit 4, doesn't pair the board. i bet 500, he calls again. river brings a raggy flush card, still no pair on the board. i have a little more than 1300 left.

not too interesting of a hand, but lately this similar scenario has come up a few times and i've been a little unsure how to proceed, being first to act on the river: value/blocking-bet? push is probably bad? check-call? check to induce a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played meaningful NL in months, so take this with a grain of salt, but it strikes me that you could have chosen to have a better depth on the river by betting a little heavier on the earlier streets, especially since you thought your opponent was likely to call too much. With things as they are, I'd push but wish I had put more money in the pot and left less in my stack.

Also, how come you're never on IM anymore?

scrub

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played meaningful NL in months, so take this with a grain of salt, but it strikes me that you could have chosen to have a better depth on the river by betting a little heavier on the earlier streets, especially since you thought your opponent was likely to call too much. With things as they are, I'd push but wish I had put more money in the pot and left less in my stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed 100%, especially on the flop.

The Doc

[THWAP!]

[ QUOTE ]
I like betting something like 250-300 with the intent of calling any raise from villian. Gets value out of weak Js / lower pockets, and really encourages villian to bluff raise the scare card.

I don't see any way of getting away from the hand against an unknown given all the straight draws on board that he could have missed.

Give him a chance to bluff off some money. Pushing doesn't give him that option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree with this. You should only blockbet/fold if you are willing to fold. Since everyone says you're pretty much pot-committed, they then say "well, you might as well push all in." But what better hand could you fold out by going all in? If all better hands will call/move in, and no/few worse hands will call the all in, then i vote for what radioheadfan says.

incidentally, in terms of action on prior sts, the stack sizes make things a little awkward. your flop bet is a little small. but even a bigger flop bet makes it harder to negotiate the pot on later sts anyway. does anyone think that going for a very sizeable turn checkraise makes sense here? the villain (unless he's extremely passive in addition to being loose) will tend to read a small-ish flop bet, followed by a turn check as weakness. since it's early on in the session for you, he will also have a hard time picking up on when you're going to checkraise.

EDIT: paragon basically makes the same point about the turn c/r. i'm an idiot.