Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[ZeeJustin]

WPT Aruba, day 1 flight 3. I've been playing for 35 minutes but haven't seen a flop yet.
Here's the only time I put chips in the pot:
25/50 blinds, utg+1 limps, I limp utg+2, MP makes it 300, and everyone folds including me.

In the hand in question blinds are 25/50. Utg (Dave Williams) and Utg+1 fold. Semi-Tight UTG+2 makes it 150. MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls. I call J9s in the CO. Button folds. SB throws in a purple (500) and a black (100) chip. The dealer announces raise. He flinches as he starts to say, "no..." looks at the chips in the pot, and says, "ok" and kind of shrugs. BB folds. Initial raisor folds. MP1 calls. MP3 thinks for a few seconds and throws in two yellow chips. I'm next to act.

There are 3 players other than me still in the pot, here are my reads:

SB is a middle aged guy, (35ish), seemingly honest. Nothing about him seems very aggressive or even slightly tricky/deceiving. I'm 95% sure that his reaction is legit, and he did intend to call the raise. Obviously I have to consider the chance of angle shooting, and I did, and like I said, I'm 95% certain he intended to call. He has roughly 10k chips.
MP1 is an older guy, (45ish). He doesn't seem too experienced, and is clearly one of the worst players at the table. He's loose passive. I'm fairly certain he's a low limit online player that won a satellite into this event. My read is that he will be very hesitant to put his tournament on the line. He has roughly 9k chips.
MP3 is a young (24ish) guy with an accent (European or possibly Australian). He is the most aggressive player at the table, and that is saying a lot with Dave Williams at the table. He has been raising and rerasing lots of pots preflop and postflop. He rarely calls anything on any street. He's certainly the raise or fold type. He has about 14k chips, and does not seem to be afraid to put them in for any reason. He is definately a thinking player, possibly even a very good player, although I haven't played with him enough to know. My guess is that he's merely an above average player that is overconfident, but like I said, it's certainly possible that he's a very good player.

I'm next to act, and I have 9800 chips (note that all chip stacks mentioned are chip stacks at the start of the hand). I think for about 35 seconds and push all-in.

Something to consider: There are 3750 chips in the pot (625 from SB, 50 from BB, 150 from initial raiser, 625 MP1, 2150 MP3, and 150 from me)

Please let me know what you think, but make sure you have taken in all the information in this post before you do. There's a ton of different factors to consider, so it's prolly best to read this twice before responding. All constructive criticism is greatly appreciated.

Edit: Anyone that reads this should question my possible range of hands. Here are hands I can call the initial raise with and push expecting to have the best hand: Pairs QQ-99, AK, AQo, AKs, AQs and AJs. Out of all possible outcomes, the one I'm most worried about is getting a call from the guy to my right with a hand like ATo or 77. I'd expect him to fold those hands more often than not, but you never know.
There is no player in the hand who I think can conceivably have AA, KK, or QQ except for the SB who still has a 5% chance of angle shooting. MP1 seems way too weak to have QQ and would probably rearise it anyway. MP3 would certainly reraise the initial 150 with any of those hands.
-ZJ

[SpicyF]

I like the move, my first reaction was that I did not like the approx 35s stall before declaring all-in. Insta-allinned woulda been not so good either, but a shorter pause, like 10s would be better imo.
Other than that I think your reasoning is pretty good.

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I like the move, my first reaction was that I did not like the approx 35s stall before declaring all-in. Insta-allinned woulda been not so good either, but a shorter pause, like 10s would be better imo.
Other than that I think your reasoning is pretty good.

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35s was actually almost the only redeeming factor for me in this hand.

I think that would be the perfect amount of time if you are trying to sell 99. I think selling 99 here is important if possible since it would fold out smaller pairs from MP3. I'm curious if that is what ZJ was trying to represent.

[illegit]

Interesting development. I like the play (even w/o knowing your hand). There really seems to be little to worry about. Even if the one player who likely sees and knows why you're doing this there would be little he could do about it. He'd most likely still have to fold whatever he holds.

I'm concerned about a lot here.

#1 He came in with a call when you describe him as usually coming in with a raise in this exact situation
#2 He puts in the third raise preflop but it doesn't seem to be enough to shut out his opposition, he seems content to let them come along for 2150 preflop and see what happens.
#3 I don't think he's going to believe you actually have a big hand here. He's coming with 66-88 as well as a big suited ace like aqs. (Hopefully you're not doing terrible, especially vs most of this range with the dead money, I dunno if you want to take this spot or not, it depends how good you think you are vs your table)
#4 In conclusion, I'm not seeing the same amount of fold equity as you might have decided you had. I probably would not go for it here since most likely I'm in a race or 60/40 with only like 1600 dead.

[West]

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#2 He puts in the third raise preflop but it doesn't seem to be enough to shut out his opposition, he seems content to let them come along for 2150 preflop and see what happens.

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Good point, although if he views ZJ as being as tight as he has played so far, maybe he thinks it's at least highly likely that he will at minimum get rid of him and be able to play the hand with position if he is called at all. And if he is reading the SB and MP1 as ZJ is, he may believe his chances of taking the pot down preflop to actually be pretty good. Given how aggressive he apparently is, and the fact that he at least has ZJ and MP1 outchipped significantly, I think we can still safely say that he probably doesn't have a big hand.

Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

[ZeeJustin]

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Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

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Yes, briefly. If I have one of the legit hands mentioned above though, I'm definately gonna push them. Anything else just seems suspicious.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

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Yes, briefly. If I have one of the legit hands mentioned above though, I'm definately gonna push them. Anything else just seems suspicious.

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I might be misunderstanding you, but it seems like you're saying that when you have AA-QQ making a smaller raise than all-in is too suspicious and people will often fold.

Doesn't that make this a perfect opportunity to make such a raise, assuming that people don't know that you wouldn't do this with AA-QQ because it's too suspicious?

[SossMan]

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SB throws in a purple (500) and a black (100) chip.

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At first blush I like it. Everything seems to be alligned. The MP1 doesn't want to go home. The SB didn't even mean to raise, much less call all in. The biggest worry is that the tricky player decides to take the almost 1.8 odds and put you on a middle pair and call w/ his junky broadway or vice versa. I'm assuming that you are pretty positive that mr. tricky saw the SB's blunder, yes?


My guess is that you have about a .95 * .95 * .65 chance of getting it folded around. (55-60%)

When you are called by the MP1 or SB, you are likely around 25% equity. When you are called by the MP3, you are probably around 35-40% equity. (total rough intuition guesses without any hand range analysis).

Also, your image is obviously perfect for it.