three hands against one maniac

[shemp]

Maybe this is weak tight thinking, but if she'd go 12 bets with a single overcard on a 632 board, doesn't that make her call of your flop 4 bet pretty scary?

[mike l.]

"but if she'd go 12 bets with a single overcard on a 632 board"

how can someone know for sure if she would, but im saying that she might. as much as some of you will try to insist otherwise, my read of this player was solid and if she kept going i wouldve kept going and i wouldve been right to.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
my read of this player was solid and if she kept going i wouldve kept going and i wouldve been right to.


[/ QUOTE ] I guess that explains why you posted the hand.

The contrarian point (which isn't valid, of course) is that you aren't that far ahead of a random hand that someone exercising even a wee bit of judgment (like stopping after 4 bets with a random hand) isn't doing badly if you'll go 12 bets when they are even just a bit stronger.

[mike l.]

"you aren't that far ahead of a random hand"

so on a board of 632 with 64 against a random hand im not far enough ahead to want to get a lot of money in? can you show your work please?

[shemp]

Your editing destroys what I said.

You are nearly 7:3 against a random hand, ie, better than 2:1.

[mike l.]

ok let's start over then. i didnt understand what you said.

for starters you said:

"The contrarian point (which isn't valid, of course)"

and i assumed you were being sarcastic. were you?

[shemp]

Maybe sarcastic is the right word because of the "of course." I'm not sure. My point was to introduce something you hadn't thought about, even though it is effectively irrelevant -- by which I mean, either in point of fact or at least for the point of this discussion, my observation has no weight, because you know what you know. So before introducing that fact, I was conceding, "this doesn't matter."

Given that she is 2+:1 dog with a random hand. If she gives you 4 bets with such a hand, and goes to 12 when she's better, well, you aren't doing so well. And if she pops you legitimately on the turn, you've lost the profit from the flop. I kind of assume that she either rivered you with Q5o or you won the hand and are kicking yourself for not trying to get more value by re-popping her meaningless turn raise.