Tough Turn Decision in Huge Pot.

oscark · #1 01-05-2005, 01:38 PM

UTG+2 was a strange player. Seemed reasonable at times, but occassionally got quite out of hand. MP3 is good.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (25.66 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (20.83 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero ...

William Jockusch · #2 01-05-2005, 02:01 PM

You can't fold here. You have roughly a 1 in 11.5 chance of filling on the river, which should make you a winner. If the turn is capped, you are putting in 3BB more for a pot which will be 32BB when the river card comes.

Granted, you will occasionally run into AA or QQ or AQ, and your outs will be no good. But you may also currently have the best hand. I think your chance of catching a blank and winning or tying is greater than your chance of hitting your card and losing. It is not unreasonable that your opponents could be on hands like AK with the flush ace or king.

The only question left is whether it's better to call, or to cap it yourself. I tend to prefer calling, as no one is folding here.

You are probably paying off on the river here as well. This pot is just too big to fold a hand that might be good.

William

hockey1 · #3 01-05-2005, 02:21 PM

The decision doesn't really look that tough to me. You're beaten, probably by both players. If MP3 is good then the worst hand he can possibly have is AQ, and unless UTG+2 is a real maniac, his turn 3 bet tells you pretty clearly he can beat that.

IMHO The other poster who suggested calling or even raising is misguided -- he more-or-less assumes that you have 4 outs. My guess is that some of those outs are in your opponents' hands. In fact, all of them could be.

edtost · #4 01-05-2005, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If MP3 is good then the worst hand he can possibly have is AQ, and unless UTG+2 is a real maniac

[/ QUOTE ]

this is party 15/30. they both probably suck and are laggy, as the poster didn't tell us otherwise.

Nightwish · #5 01-05-2005, 03:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If MP3 is good then the worst hand he can possibly have is AQ, and unless UTG+2 is a real maniac

[/ QUOTE ]

this is party 15/30. they both probably suck and are laggy, as the poster didn't tell us otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I suggest you read his post again.

Nightwish · #6 01-05-2005, 04:11 PM

You're almost certainly behind right now, the only question is to what. Since UTG+2 is weird, he could have a broad range of hands. But if MP3 is a TAG, his range of hands is much narrower. So let's deal with MP3 first. He 3-bets preflop, 3-bets the flop, and raises the turn. I'm putting him on AA, QQ, or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Those three hands are the most likely. There's also a very small chance he has AQs, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Kx, and 77, but I think all three of those are fairly unlikely by the time he raises the turn. So of the three most likely hands, the best case scenario is that he has the A high flush, meaning you have only 3 outs. You need 14.3:1 to call and you're getting 13.4:1. As much as it sucks, you have to muck.

Of course, it'll now turn out that MP3 had AKo and UTG+2 had 97. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

William Jockusch · #7 01-05-2005, 08:17 PM

No, the best case scenario is that hero is ahead.

It is perfectly possible that this is the case. Opponents could be pushing with hands like A9, or AK with a heart.

I don't know if the chance that hero is ahead is 10% or 20%, but it's way more than zero.

oscark · #8 01-06-2005, 03:42 PM

I really didn't like UTG2 slowing down on the flop and then betting into me (after capping) on the turn when the heart comes. Then with MP3s raise and his reraise, I though this was a fairly easy decision.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (25.66 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero caps, MP3 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (20.83 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 raises, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero folds, MP3 calls.

River: (27.83 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: 27.83 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 has 9d Qd (two pair, queens and nines).
MP3 has Qs Ah (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: MP3 wins 27.83 BB.