Finally figured out AK in early rounds.... - Page 3

mlagoo · #21 07-13-2005, 02:34 PM

I don't use ICM so you'll have to bear with me.

Does ICM factor in the percentage of the time someone is going to call with those hands? Or the percentage of the time they will have callable hands?

Because I would say that maybe, I don't know (arbitrary number alert), 20% of the time is some donk going to call here with 77 or another medium PP. Which definitely shifts it back into the +EV category. Same applies to pairs at least up to TT, then maybe they're more inclined to call with JJ, QQ is probably a lock to call, et cetera.

Fold equity is the key thing here, and why this play is profitable in the long run. Not to mention the "giga-advantage" of having a big stack (not that any of us can play a stack like gigabet, but I know I at least have a slightly bigger edge with more chips at my disposal).

edit: I wanted to add in that, on top of the low pair hands, there is also a range of hands that donks will call with here that we have completely dominated. I think this is +EV if they ONLY call with pocket pairs -- I think it is very much +EV when you factor in calls with AQ, AJ and KQ.

gildwulf · #22 07-13-2005, 02:35 PM

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Not a bad play but I hate getting called by TT or JJ or QQ this early.

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I'm ok with it. I'll know that I am a coinflip, and that I had at least some fold equity, which makes it a +EV play in the hand. And I can deal with making +EV plays all day.

I hate getting called by KK or AA though. Those donks just won't lay those hands down.

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But is it really though?

Let's say that it is the 1st hand and you have AKo on the button. UTG pops it to T85 and gets one coldcaller. You move in, blinds fold, UTG calls and the coldcaller folds. What does ICM say about it when he turns up 77...

You win 45% (T1710) - 19.5% $EV
You lose 55% - 0% $EV

Net - 8.8% $EV

I'm not super thrilled about this situation.

Brad

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Can ICM calculate fold equity?

durron597 · #23 07-13-2005, 02:39 PM

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This play is definitely -EV in the long run.

It's a coin flip against a pocket pair, and you are only a 65-35 favorite against any two cards heads up.

Main deal here is the blind levels. In HOH2, Harrington had a good example I believe which was in the structured hand analysis section. QQ is -Ev in the long run in the first set of blind levels as well.

You simply stand to lose more than you stand to gain.

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Are you joking?!??

Ok first of all, you aren't getting called by 76s here. The hands that call you, you are either a slight dog or a big favorite except MAYBE QJ, and of course AA and KK which are unlikely given your hand.

Even if QQ is slightly -EV (it isn't, because of the pot overlay), the times you get called by AQ, KQ, etc. more than make up for it.

I know this hand isn't exact but it's the closest I could find on short notice.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

MP1 (t3750)
Hero (t1260)
CO (t40)
Button (t2120)
SB (t1560)
BB (t1160)
UTG (t2910)
UTG+1 (t700)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t50, UTG+1 calls t50, 1 fold, Hero raises to t250, CO calls t40 (All-In), 3 folds, UTG calls t200, UTG+1 raises to t700, Hero raises to t1260, UTG folds.

Flop: (t2325) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2325) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2325) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2325

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Td Kd (one pair, twos).
Hero has Kh Ac (one pair, twos).
CO has Qh Tc (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero wins t2325.

mlagoo · #24 07-13-2005, 02:41 PM

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I know this hand isn't exact but it's the closest I could find on short notice.

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party poker is a strange, magical place.

edit: just saw that it was pokerstars.

looked like a party pot to me =)

durron597 · #25 07-13-2005, 02:44 PM

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Can ICM calculate fold equity?

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Yes.

Let PPE(chips) = prize pool expectation from # of chips
Let P(event) = probability of event
Let EV(event) = expected value of event

EV(fold) = PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they fold) = P(they fold)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you win) = P(they call)*P(you win)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you lose) = P(they call)*P(you lose)*PPE(resulting chips)

EV(push) = EV(you push, they fold) + EV(you push, they call, you win) + EV(you push, they call, you lose)

compare EV(push) to EV(fold).

That's an ICM calc that includes FE.

gildwulf · #26 07-13-2005, 02:45 PM

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I know this hand isn't exact but it's the closest I could find on short notice.

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party poker is a strange, magical place.

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QED

tminus · #27 07-13-2005, 02:45 PM

actually he brings up a good point
if played on the flop he may have been able to extract mroe chips. loose players LOVE to bet split pairs even if there's an overcard present so slick is perfect in this situation

gildwulf · #28 07-13-2005, 02:46 PM

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Can ICM calculate fold equity?

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Yes.

Let PPE(chips) = prize pool expectation from # of chips
Let P(event) = probability of event
Let EV(event) = expected value of event

EV(fold) = PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they fold) = P(they fold)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you win) = P(they call)*P(you win)*PPE(resulting chips)
EV(you push, they call, you lose) = P(they call)*P(you lose)*PPE(resulting chips)

EV(push) = EV(you push, they fold) + EV(you push, they call, you win) + EV(you push, they call, you lose)

compare EV(push) to EV(fold).

That's an ICM calc that includes FE.

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OK, so someone run THAT calculation:P

I'm in social sciences...I don't know how to do this crap

We just use big words like 'globalization' and 'fold equity'.

I really need to get Eastbay's program, on a sidenote.

gildwulf · #29 07-13-2005, 02:48 PM

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actually he brings up a good point
if played on the flop he may have been able to extract mroe chips. loose players LOVE to bet split pairs even if there's an overcard present so slick is perfect in this situation

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So sorry, but this is exactly wrong. You are going to make any small pair fold or any hand like that so you will win a small pot or lose a huge pot vs. AA or KK (which you would have lost anyways). And as far as getting the higher kicker...odds are that anyone that would call or reraise all-in with TP 9 or 10 kicker would probably call your all-in on the flop with AT...ie DONKSVILLE.

durron597 · #30 07-13-2005, 02:51 PM

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OK, so someone run THAT calculation:P

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It's really not that bad; use dethgrind's calculator for the PPE calculation.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

Then you have to do about 8 multiplications and three additions. The hardest part is actually determining the probability of winning and losing; you can use pokerstove for that.

Of course, that's why SnGPT is worth money, because it does all of this for you.