NFL week 9 early thoughts?

tolga · #1 10-31-2005, 02:02 PM

what do you all see on the board that is appealing, interesting?

two things that I'm thinking about:

Detroit -1 at Minnesota
I have avoided the NFC north for the most part, because it is such a mess, but will the terrible vikings be able to beat anyone without Culpepper? I guess it would be best to find out if he is definitely out, but the early reports I saw suggested that he's done for the week, and probably the year.

Pats +3 vs. Colts
I know that these aren't the Pats of years past, but this still might be a good play. We all know how Peyton has been shut down by the Pats in the past, but I doubt we can expect a similar performance considering the condition of the Pats D right now. Regardless, this is a huge game for New England to really take control of the division, and I feel like they might have their best game of the year, especially after escaping with a win against the mediocre Bills yesterday.

Am I cuckoo? Making a little bit of sense? Thoughts on these and any others for this week?

McGahee · #2 10-31-2005, 02:10 PM

As down as everyone is on the Vikings right now, I don't know if you're going to win much betting against them at home. 2 weeks ago it was the Packers, now the Lions...I know it's only a point but I don't think these teams have any business being a road favorite anywhere.

I kinda agree with you on Indy-NE, but who knows - they had the Bruschi thing, the homefield primetime thing and the bye week this past week and they still played like crap. Also, there isn't much pressure on Indy this time around because they're still going to have homefield even if they lose this game.

Frills · #3 10-31-2005, 02:10 PM

Houston +670 v Jax

since 2002, Hou is 4-2 v Jax...momentum

lastsamurai · #4 10-31-2005, 02:13 PM

detroit/minn I would play this game under 37.... Culpepper is probable for this game...

New Englands/Indy Monday night football...I have to go with the crowd and take indy...IT does look like a vegas trap...let the buyer beware!

dankhank · #5 10-31-2005, 02:14 PM

i grabbed three lines last night on the expectation they would move in my direction and i could middle them later or hold for value. two were road favorites, one a slight dog: carolina -pk, seattle -4`, and philly +1 +103. suprisingly, the lines for two public teams, seattle and philly, have both moved against them so far.

culpepper i would expect to be out but i don't feel like touching that game atm, or maybe all week pending line moves and input frm others. same with indy-ne.

#6 10-31-2005, 02:19 PM

I think Indy is a pretty solid pick here, they're coming off a bye, not to mention the fact that NE had trouble shutting down the Bills' passing game. I bet Peyton drools on his playbook as he prepares for this one.

McGahee · #7 10-31-2005, 02:43 PM

True, but Manning has actually played really well in his last 2 reg. season games vs. NE.
IMO the game will be decided on the other side of the ball, and I'm still not sure Indy's D has what it takes to stop a good offense when it matters.

#8 10-31-2005, 04:14 PM

Early line I really like is TB +1.5 at home vs Carolina. Carolina is 1-1 on the road beating Detroit by 1 and losing to Miami at the last second. Getting a lot of value here imo after TB losing to SF. I think this line may get close to +2.5 by the end of the week if early betting is any indication. BSPs will be all over Carolina.

NoChance · #9 11-01-2005, 01:52 PM

7 games where the road team is favored by 4 points or less. 10 raod favorites in all. Interesting, since home teams have fared well this year. If you thought week 8 was strange....

Hmm, could be one of those weeks where teasing the small home dogs up to 8, 9, or 10 might be good.