Finish Stars $10 rebuy in 14th last night... Anybody fold AA here? - Page 2

salty · #11 06-14-2004, 03:23 PM

fair point....i understand that generally he will win uncontested but I think he has got very lucky here with a bad play.

What I am trying to say is he put himself in a dangerous position with a hand that beat very few other pocket pairs,the only likely calling hand here was another pp,he ran into AA and hit a miracle board.My point is if 44 meats another pair it is more likely to be dominated and lose.

fnurt · #12 06-14-2004, 03:29 PM

Thing is, there are 7 players at the table, and the blinds are huge. If most hands are being taken down by a preflop raise, you need to steal the blinds 1/7 of the time to stay competitive. You can't afford to sit there waiting for a premium hand.

I also don't think most players will call all-in with "any pocket pair." If it's a bad idea to raise all-in with 44, it sure as heck is a bad idea to call an all-in with 55. Consider it from the perspective of the 55 player; there are 3 tiny pairs that he dominates, but against the vast majority of hands, it's just a coinflip. Even if you've caught the original raiser stealing with J8o, it's still just a coinflip. And what you want in this situation is to win uncontested pots and stay alive, not to get into coinflip situations.

Grivan · #13 06-14-2004, 03:48 PM

Stealing with J8o here would be a better play then raising all in with 44.

gcDanno · #14 06-14-2004, 03:55 PM

I don't think it was a "horrible" play either, even though he did knock me out. At this stage, you have to be agressive when betting out. The GAP is huge between raising / calling hands.

Check out these two hands I used to build my stack up with. Good calls? I knew this guy was very LAG (more than me).
Hands #322 and #329; The AA was hand #344..

I think I caught a huge break that the LAG chased the other player away.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30000 (8 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (LAG Player) (t265677)
Button (t273764)
Hero (t100073)
BB (t334520)
UTG (t139594)
UTG+1 (t227248)
MP1 (t120544)
MP2 (t339767)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, CO (LAG Player) raises to t60000, Button calls t60000, Hero raises to t98573, 1 fold, CO (LAG Player) raises to t137146, Button folds.

Flop: (t304719) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t304719) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t304719) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t304719
Main Pot: t266146 (t266146), between LAG Player and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (t266146).
Pot 2: t38573 (t38573), between LAG Player and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (t38573).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Ac Tc (high card, ace).
LAG Player shows 8d Kd (high card, king).
Outcome: Hero wins t304719. 

And 7 hands later, again!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30000 (7 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (LAG Player) (t111604)
Button (t158264)
Hero (t260146)
BB (t390020)
UTG (t389342)
MP1 (t150544)
MP2 (t341267)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, CO (LAG Player) raises to t110104, 1 fold, Hero raises to t258646, 1 fold,

Flop: (t376250) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t376250) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t376250) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t376250
Main Pot: t227708 (t227708), between LAG Player and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (t227708).
Pot 2: t148542 (t148542), between LAG Player and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (t148542).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Jd Ah (one pair, fives).
LAG Player shows Td 8d (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero wins t376250. 

And finally, here is the actual hand I busted on. Good call? I wasn't too tilted here. I didn't figure I was going to get much beter. Heck, after the flop, I'm a 50/50. All I needed was a Q or a heart. ARG.

Hand #346.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40000 (7 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t708260)
MP1 (t79699)
Hero (t29576)
CO (t279020)
Button (t212842)
SB (t272088)
BB (t409767)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls t27576 (All-In), CO calls t40000, 2 folds, BB checks,

Flop: (t119576) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, CO checks.

Turn: (t119576) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, CO bets t40000, BB calls t40000.

River: (t199576) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: t199576
Main Pot: t96728 (t96728), between Hero, CO and BB. > Pot won by CO (t96728).
Pot 2: t102848 (t102848), between CO and BB. > Pot won by CO (t102848).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Kh 8h (one pair, jacks).
CO shows Ac 8d (two pair, aces and jacks).
BB shows 8s Ts (two pair, jacks and tens).
Outcome: CO wins t199576.

fnurt · #15 06-14-2004, 03:57 PM

That probably depends a lot on what your assumptions are about what hands will call you.

Obviously 55 66 and 77 are hands that play much better against 44 than against J8o. If you think those three hands are likely to call an all-in bet, that's going to have a big effect on the ultimate decision. Conversely, if you think AJ will call, that's going to have an effect in the opposite direction.

Maybe you could share some math with us since I don't think your conclusion is so self-evident.

cferejohn · #16 06-14-2004, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Stealing with J8o here would be a better play then raising all in with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just want to make sure we are on the same page here. With 20/40K blinds and a stack of ~300K, the only reasonable raise is all-in, so 'stealing' with J8o would also necessarily be an all-in. Are you saying you'd sooner push w/ J8o in EP here than 44? I have to disagree.

I think the move w/44 here is marginal. Folded to me in LP, I'm in with any pair without a second thought, but in EP, I need something a little more substantial to push, usually. At the "less than 10x the BB" stage of the tournament though, I'll take mistakes of aggression over mistakes of weak-tight-eousness every time.

Presumably this goes without saying, but the call with AA was an absolute no brainer.

Michael Davis · #17 06-14-2004, 06:46 PM

I fold here everytime. I play like Dan Harrington and just want to sneak as high up as I can get. I'm not really trying to win.

I need to have flush or at bare minimum a set (not three of a kind) before all my chips go into the pot.

-Michael

Boris · #18 06-14-2004, 07:04 PM

Please tell me your joking. The sarcasm doesn't always transfer in cyber space.

M.B.E. · #19 06-14-2004, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question for MBE....I refered to the move here with 44 by mp2 as horrible,IMO a raise of 8xbb with this hand is excessive,he has 4 players left to act and I beleive that at this stage of the game he will get called by most pocket pairs and he can only beat 2,why do you disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]
There's four players remaining. What is the chance that one (or more) of them has a pocket pair greater than 4s? Only 18.2%. And even then, if someone calls with a bigger pocket pair, you won't necessarily lose. Also, as others have noted, if the pocket pair is 55, 66, or 77, the player will probably fold it. Maybe 88 as well. However, you'd probably be called by AK or AQ. All in all, raising allin with pocket fours in this particular situation, I estimate there's only about a 15% chance that you'll lose the hand. And one of the four players remaining is quite shortstacked, so if he's the one you lose to, you'll have enough chips left to stage your comeback. When you don't lose the hand, you usually will pick up 70,000 in blinds and antes, which is significant. Occasionally you will win a lot more than that.

Salty mentioned that a raise of 8xBB is excessive. Well, the allin raise of 8xBB is much better than raising 3xBB with 44, because then you have to fold to a reraise, or probably fold on the flop if you just called.

Actually I think that something like 6 to 8 times the BB is the ideal stack to have when raising allin holding 44. If my stack were much larger, say 14xBB, I would fold the 44 (assuming that three of the four players remaining have more than 10xBB in their stack).