TD 2-7: I fold 2357x on the third round

[MarkGritter]

I figure I can have no more than 9 outs vs. a rough 8 and no more than 6 outs vs. a stronger hand, minus whatever my opponents are holding.

I'm getting 17:2 pot odds (maybe more like 19:2 if A comes along for the ride.)

Is it a mistake to fold in this large pot? Or am I drawing slim here? With my implied odds something like 10.5:1 I need only 3-4 outs in 40 cards (37:3 = 12:1, 36:4 = 9:1).

I think I got panicked and folded incorrectly, but that might just be because I saw Villians' holdings.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
$1/$2 Triple Draw 2-7 at UltimateBet

Hero is at seat 0 with $229.
A is at seat 1 with $13.75.
B is at seat 2 with $22.75.
C is at seat 3 with $9.
D is at seat 4 with $54.50.
E is at seat 5 with $55.75.
The button is at seat 0.

A posts the small blind of $.50.
B posts the big blind of $1.

Hero: Tc 2d Td Ah 7d

First Round:

C folds. D folds. E folds.
Hero raises to $2. A re-raises to $3.
B calls. Hero calls.

A takes 2 cards. B takes 2 cards.
Hero takes 3 cards.

Hero: 2d 7d 4d Ts 5d

Second Round:

A bets $1. B raises to $2. Hero
calls. A calls.

A takes 1 card. B stands pat. Hero
takes 1 card.

Hero: 2d 7d 4d 5d Jd

Third Round:

A checks. B bets $2. Hero folds....
</pre><hr />

[randomstumbl]

I was blown away by the fold until I noticed you had a 4 flush. Even with the 4 flush, I think this is a pretty easy call. You're getting the odds to draw, especially when you consider that you'll often make several bets on the river when you hit 2/3 of your outs.

Also, A is going to call here the vast majority of the time. He reraised before the first draw with a two card draw and bet when he made his one card draw. He has a decent hand (or he is a terrible player who is still likely to call).

[timprov]

I three-bet the second round approximately always. That will make your third-round decision easier. Not that I can fold this anyway.

[randomstumbl]

[ QUOTE ]
I three-bet the second round approximately always. That will make your third-round decision easier. Not that I can fold this anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you fold if someone stays pat after your 3-bet? Do you fold if someone caps and stays pat? If you can't do anything with the info, I don't see how getting money in as a dog is really going to help in this situation.

Also, getting the player to break is worth less in this situation because of your reduced outs. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I don't see how you're right.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you fold if someone stays pat after your 3-bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Almost never. (Maybe if I was really afraid of getting whipsawed.) What I mean by making the third-round decision easier is that the pot will be bigger and the call more obvious.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you fold if someone caps and stays pat? If you can't do anything with the info, I don't see how getting money in as a dog is really going to help in this situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

Three benefits to a 3-bet (in position), in no particular order:

1) You may be ahead. I actually find everyone's still drawing here at least 20% of the time. Even if they aren't, you may be a slight equity favorite, and you're almost certainly not a large equity dog.

2) You may fold out the initial bettor.

3) You may force opponents to make incorrect drawing decisions.

With two rounds left and a wheel draw, an extra small bet if you're behind isn't a big deal.

[fnord_too]

Looks like a bad fold to me. I don't think B has to have a huge hand to play this way, on the second round he is exerting pressure on someone who drew three, on the third round he is continuing. If you and A still need to draw, a 9 is a favorite here IIRC. Who knows what's going through B's head, but he might be correct to play this way with some pretty weak holdings. (Though wow, he calls two preflop and draws two. Could be a fine play or a complete donk play.)

At any rate, no way I fold there.

Edit - didn't notice the 4 flush in your hand. Still a call I think.