Bellagio 3k

[J_V]

I pretty much suck at live tournaments. Started with 6k, got up to about 18k thanks to no skill of my own. Bleed down to 15k.

Blinds 100-200 no ante. Good player (likes to blow through some hands) raises UTG +2. Minneapolis Jim Meehan calls, two others call, Sb calls. I have KsQc in the Big Blind and call.

Pot is about 3k. Flop Qh 7d 6h. Sb checks, I lead for 2k. Minneapolis Jim calls, everyone folds. Turn is the Kc.

Board, Qh 7d 6h Kc. I check, Minneapolis Jim bets 3300. I push all in for maybe 6k more.

Thoughts?

His most likely hand after the turn bet is a set. Anyway to get off this hand? Bet less on the flop? Check the flop.

[Firefly]

That turn makes it impossible to get away from your hand. Atleast it would be impossible for me to get away from it. He could have something like 76s or KQ..maybe QJ? But sets or two pair are the most likely hands, plus factoring in the Harrington 10% for Bluffing.
I like your line, but if he outflopped you I doubt you can get away from it

[adanthar]

Well if you can divine his most likely hand is a set from that action, to quote curtains, you're a world champion (and should just call.)

Me? I put him on a pretty big range (heart draws with a K, 9h8h/JhTh, 76, AQ, lower queens etc. are all in here) and would've played it the same way. I don't see how you think he has to have a set unless he really loves milking bets.

[REL18]

After that action it seems to me like u win this hand offcourse u wouldnt have posted if u did but i think you are ahead let alone being worried about being behind

[Exitonly]

i don't really like the check on the turn, it worked out this time, but i think you'll get more money in by leading the turn. and at this point in the hand thats what i'm interested in, getting all of his money in.

[MLG]

I'm not sure why you checked the turn here. When he calls the flop, I think its much more likely he has a draw of some sort (and not necessarily a good one) than a marginal made hand. This turn check gets more money in against a marginal made hand at the expense of giving free cards to draws. I'd almost always lead the turn.

After you checked and he bet I'd be leaning away from marginal made hands and to big made hands/combo hands. A set is certainly possible, but hands like K10 of hearts or J10 of hearts are also fairly likely i think. Another KQ is also quite possible. No way to fold. So yeah, if he has 77/66 so be it.

[Howard Treesong]

I don't think you can get away from it, but it really depends on one premise: how many drinks has Jim consumed at this point in the tournament?

[tessarji]

I don't know what other people in this thread are thinking, but a good tournament player isn't flat calling an UTG+1 raise, with like the whole table to act after them, with much besides a PP. I don't know exactly how Jim plays though, of course.

The only hands that seem even remotely possible that you could beat, are AKo and Ah Qh. And I think AK puts you to the test on the flop, and Ah Qh would just check behind on the turn, since it has a huge amount to improve on the river, and no real expectation of you folding.

He could be bluffing. But this is a big multiway raised pot, and you are the BB. Leading out from the BB is just such an indication of major strength that it doesn't make sense for an opportunist to call and expect to take away the pot on the turn.

So yeah, I think he flopped a set.

Now, how do you get away from the hand? You'll have 9k left, right? According to the action you're describing, you've only spent about 2600 on this hand. You'll have 45 BBs left if you fold. Assuming the blinds are not escalating super rapidly, I think you should make the Big Laydown. I'm not saying I'm good enough to do so in the heat of the action. But looking at it away from the table, that's the best play IMHO.

Finally: I think folding is not bad, but CALLING is still way, way better than an AI. Does anyone else agree?

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
a good tournament player isn't flat calling an UTG+1 raise, with like the whole table to act after them, with much besides a PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sentence is a contradiction. If a player's range is that easy to narrow down then he is not good player, tournament or otherwise.