How -EV is DreamClown Preflop?

[sweetjazz]

First, you have to take into account the deception value of this play. He should be able to make up some of the EV on later streets because his hand range is necessarily as big as it can be.

That said, I believe the overall effect of this strategy is one that reduces EV, though by how much I cannot say. I think his decision to play the truly trash hands is probably -EV. I am not experienced enough in HU play to try to estimate the EV of those hands, but it seems like the consensus among most good players is that the junk hands are not profitable.

His decision to never 3-bet PF seems more debatable. I still think it is slightly -EV, because you want more bets to go in before the flop with your stronger hands. But you are limited in how much you can accompish this without giving up postflop EV to an observant opponent.

Just my $0.02.