tricky one, well maybe not.

mc1023 · #1 10-16-2005, 04:22 AM

Villian is 32/16, with AF of 1.55/2.20/3.00 for just the current session of the last 105 hands.

He's a solid ring player but haven't seen him play SH too much, except he's being extremly aggressive so far this session.

He's smashed me the last 2 blind wars and I couldn't even look him up to showdown.

it seems pretty straightforward on the river but still curious what others would think my best line here would be.

comments on other streets appreciated too.

oh and Villian is very capable of 3betting the turn in position with a pair+draw so keep that in mind when you consider the river option.

Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ...?

Subfallen · #2 10-16-2005, 04:34 AM

It seems that the flop+turn action pretty much define your hand as a drawing hand. Any 1 or 2-pair hands I can think of would have either 3-bet the flop or led the turn. You would cap the turn with a straight.

So if you bet the river, I think he'll believe you either just hit your straight or are bluffing. In this case there's not enough value for him justify raising any non-K hand. And the vast majority of the time he already has a made hand good enough to catch bluffs, so he probably won't consider bluff-raising himself.

Thus bet-fold looks good.

flawless_victory · #3 10-16-2005, 04:41 AM

checkraise/fold or bet/fold, depending on how you think he will most likely play two small pair, or a hand like Q8.
looks like a bet/fold situation i think.

mc1023 · #4 10-16-2005, 05:03 AM

I don't think there's any chance I'm folding this pot given the size of it, and also because of the fact that the last two hands I have laid down without looking him up.

he will likely not fold a two pair on the river for 2bets either given the size of the pot, the only hands he will fold for two bets are one pair hands that he missed the draw with in which case he may check behind but at the same time there is a chance he will use the ACE as a scare card if checked to since he's been smashing me and I've been laying down the last couple hands in the blinds, we'll say 60-70% chance of that.

Villian's range of hands that he would've just called preflop is quite large here; KQ-Q9, KJ-J9, KT, T9 are the most likely though.

if the roles were reversed and you were villian would you value bet QJ QT JT here when checked to?

Subfallen · #5 10-16-2005, 05:14 AM

Well the thing is that villain's play definitely suggests a variety of 2-pair and straight hands.

But what hand do you think you have represented to villain thus far?

mc1023 · #6 10-16-2005, 05:17 AM

well I tried to represent a big hand on the turn but I'm sure its quite obvious to him that I have a flush or pair/straight draw at this point.

since a hand like QJ JT QT I would've played the flop and turn differently.

and if I had a made hand (set or better) I would've most likely capped him on the turn.

edit: but also he might just think I'm frustrated with a weak pair on the turn since I've been laying down the last two hands after much action, the very last hand I floped a OESFD and missed but jammed the flop and got raised on the turn only to lay down on the river.

KdoubleK · #7 10-16-2005, 06:07 AM

chk/call.

flawless_victory · #8 10-16-2005, 06:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
chk/call.

[/ QUOTE ]dont do this.

mc1023 · #9 10-16-2005, 06:55 AM

it's really bet/call or checkraise/fold

I just can't grasp which one would be more +ev in a situation like this.

its very dependent on the tempo of BB's play against me that makes this river play tricky I think.

daryn · #10 10-16-2005, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He's a solid ring player but haven't seen him play SH too much

[/ QUOTE ]

DOES NOT COMPUTE