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#1
08-12-2005, 03:16 PM
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$22: Bubble: one of those \"pass up +CEV\" spots?
Seat 1: PlayerA ( $2930 )
Seat 4: PlayerB ( $3290 ) Seat 5: Hero ( $1180 ) Seat 10: PlayerC ( $600 ) Blinds(100/200) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero [ 2s As ] PlayerA folds. PlayerB folds. Hero ? PlayerC has 400 after posting, thus committed to this pot. Is a ~57% edge (A2 vs. random) worth making a stand here? If PlayerC isn't pot committed this is an easy push for me. However, a loss here puts my head on the chopping block Discuss. 
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#2
08-12-2005, 03:30 PM
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Re: $22: Bubble: one of those \"pass up +CEV\" spots?
i think this is a pretty easy push. for one, villain may fold. i think he may even fold correctly. if you have 34o there, you're getting 2:1 and you're almost exactly 2:1 against a random hand. thus you're -chipEV to call, so presumably you're also -$EV. whether or not a fold could be correct is irrelevant though, because the fact is that he may fold.
even if he does call any 2, it's a push. you're a small favorite to make the money right now, and you have some chance to come back if you lose. if you fold, it's 1080 v 700, which is pretty close.
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#3
08-12-2005, 03:42 PM
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Re: $22: Bubble: one of those \"pass up +CEV\" spots?
I think you have to push here. Most of your equity is coming from outlasting the short stack since you're a distant 3rd in chips. If you give him the blinds, you're losing a lot of your prize pool equity. A2s is way too strong to give him the blinds for free.
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#4
08-12-2005, 03:48 PM
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Re: $22: Bubble: one of those \"pass up +CEV\" spots?
Push it real good.
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#5
08-12-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: $22: Bubble: one of those \"pass up +CEV\" spots?
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 1: PlayerA ( $2930 ) Seat 4: PlayerB ( $3290 ) Seat 5: Hero ( $1180 ) Seat 10: PlayerC ( $600 ) Blinds(100/200) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero [ 2s As ] PlayerA folds. PlayerB folds. Hero ? PlayerC has 400 after posting, thus committed to this pot. Is a ~57% edge (A2 vs. random) worth making a stand here? If PlayerC isn't pot committed this is an easy push for me. However, a loss here puts my head on the chopping block Discuss. [/ QUOTE ] Easy push. If you fold this hand, you've just given small stack 300 chips for a total of 900, you're down to 1080, and he's back in the game. Quantitatively, it looks like this:  If BB wants to start getting selective about calling, that only helps you:  eastbay
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