Downswings (no hand content)

[GrekeHaus]

I recently went through a 300 BB downswing over 15,000 hands.

You shouldn't dwell on it, but check your PT numbers to make sure you don't start reverting to your natural style. Mine is tight/passive, so I had to make sure to keep my VP$IP up and my aggression factor up.

[sthief09]

I meant your swing is bad but expected

[J.R.]

Old School

New School

[SA125]

I'm not sure how many sessions you're talking about, but I find managing downswings multi-tabling online easier now because I've learned to recognize the sessions where I'm guaranteed to be doomed and just shut down.

When you're losing bad, it doesn't matter what cards you get or what you do, you're going to continue to lose. It's re-distribution time.

Flame away if you like, but I don't care what SSH says about your brain playing tricks on you. When you're playing 4 tables at the same time online, and have jumped around to maybe 4 others, and you're AA and KK are losing at every one, you simply won't win. It's your turn in the barrel.

I haven't been on tilt in a good while because I don't get frustrated anymore or lose as much anymore. It's easier to accept when you know there's nothing you can do about it.

[Chris Dow]

[ QUOTE ]
When you're losing bad, it doesn't matter what cards you get or what you do, you're going to continue to lose. It's re-distribution time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, you shouldn't start making less ev plays because you're convinced you're bound to lose. I mean you're talking about like changing your preflop aggression with AA or KK cause you're running bad and the like. Any sort of strategy similar to this will only extend your losing streaks.

[glorfindel]

Your question is "how do I quantify luck?" and can be easily answered by applying simple mathematics.

Assumptions:
Your expectation is +2BB/100.
Your expectation for 5000 hands is $100.
Limit hold'em standard deviation is @ 15BB/100.

There is a 68% chance you will be within 1 standard deviation of expectation and a 98% chance you will be within 2 standard deviations.

Calculations:
Standard deviation for 5000 hands = 15 * sqrt(5000) = $1050.
68% of the time your results will be between ($100 - $1050) and ($100 + $1050) or -158BB and + 191BB.

98% of the time your results will be between ($100 - $2100) and ($100 + $2100) or -333BB and +366BB.

If your expectation is different than +2BB/100 you get different results.

[glorfindel]

Your question is "how do I quantify luck?" and can be easily answered by applying simple mathematics.

Assumptions:
Your expectation is +2BB/100.
Your expectation for 5000 hands is $100.
Limit hold'em standard deviation is @ 15BB/100.

There is a 68% chance you will be within 1 standard deviation of expectation and a 98% chance you will be within 2 standard deviations.

Calculations:
Standard deviation for 5000 hands = 15BB * sqrt((5000/100)) = 105BB = $630 <font color="red"> </font> .
68% of the time your results will be between ($100 - $630) and ($100 + $630) or -88BB and + 121BB. <font color="red"> </font>

98% of the time your results will be between ($100 - $1260) and ($100 + $1260) or -193BB and +226BB. <font color="red"> </font>

If your expectation is different than +2BB/100 you get different results.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I find managing downswings multi-tabling online easier now because I've learned to recognize the sessions where I'm guaranteed to be doomed and just shut down.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is a form of tilt.

[rmarotti]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there such an animal as -1500bb in 1K hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I had one after Evan suggested I move to 5/10SH and I had no idea how to play shorthanded.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure there is for a retard,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm SPECIAL not retarded. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[jason_t]

-1500 BB? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]