KQo against Mr. Fancy pants

[admiralfluff]

Why would we assume villain has a smaller pocket pair 90% of the time? I would guess we're aheads of villain a lot here, and we make up the difference with our minions of outs.

[kidcolin]

You misunderstood me (poor sentence structure on my part, it was late). I'm saying that when he has a small pocket pair, after he calls the flop bet he's going to showdown the vast majority of the time. I just through the 90% of the time out there, based on experience.

[kidcolin]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero has 6 outs to the nuts, 2 outs to the near nuts, 6 somewhat tainted outs, some fold equity against Ax, and even a possibility of being ahead. A bet here seems alright to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a bet is OK. Is it better than a check?

[POKhER]

I think turn bet is debateable but not BAD. I like the way you played the hand.

Although on the hand 1, I'd be so tempted but probably wouldn't raise the river [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] (As i hit him on a 9/PP more often than an ace). p.s. yes im posting this after seeing the Showdown Info. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Guruman]

--blind response--

I think I play it the same. In the first hand, some guys just get aces in short handed games and try to sneak them through the border so that they can show off later.

The read that I would look for on him is whether he autobets with air when it checks to him. If he gives too many free cards and he calls too much, then I start checking this turn. If he doesn't, I play it the same.

[Somekid]

In the first hand (OP has jacks), does anybody bet the turn? I think we dont want to risk a free card for someone holding a queen or king. After betting the turn we can probably check behind on the river with the same net cost to the OP.

If we get c/r on the turn, I think we can fold.

[ QUOTE ]
if villian has a smaller pocket pair, a high percentage of the time (greater than 90%, I'd guess) he's going to showdown after he calls a flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think so? Villian is in position, so therefore may get to the river by just calling the flop bet. There is a good chance that Hero may check the turn, like he did in the first hand. Villian may have had a c/f plan on the turn.

I can't see how you get that 90% figure. This is so dependent on the situation and player. Only a player with poor post flop play will call down with a small pocket in this situation, or unless he thinks his opponent is overly aggressive. I can only assume that the majority of players with 30/20/2 stats play well post-flop, so therefore will not be calling down, unless they think oppenent has been overly aggressive.

If the villian was 45/10/1 the I could see an argument with 90%.

Trent.

[kidcolin]

[ QUOTE ]
I can only assume that the majority of players with 30/20/2 stats play well post-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Stats don't say jack about post-flop play. We just saw him play aces like a total douche.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see how you get that 90% figure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither can I, as I mentioned. I guess a WTSD stat would be nice. I'm just basing it off of experience. But we can all agree he's never folding a J, T, 8, or 99. You might even be getting raised by one of those. He'll probably take another one off with 77. The only hands I see him tossing are weak Ax hands, maybe some really weak pairs like 55-22, though not always.

Someone mentioned if we check the turn, he'll likely auto-bet and we'll have to fold the river UI. I think we'll have to fold the river UI a lot, anyway. The turn bet might by us a free showdown, but if we're seeing the river I think we're losing UI the vast majority of the time.

[Chairman Wood]

First of all, awesome read bob, this is one of the best reads I've seen given in the past few days.

2nd hand: I see no different way to play it. Are you considering check calling the turn?

[MicroBob]

I can only assume that the majority of players with 30/20/2 stats play well post-flop

Why? Stats don't say jack about post-flop play. We just saw him play aces like a total douche.



Agreed. There's no reason to assume that a 30/22/2 player is actually good post-flop.
I've been very near those numbers at times. Mostly in the 27/22/2 range...and my post-flop play at times is nothing short of awful.

In fact, there's no reason to believe that a 24/16 player is that great post-flop either.
Just as you really shouldn't assume that a 50/5 player isn't completely terrible post-flop.


some of those ultra-loose pre-flop guys actually make some pretty reasonable reads and bluffs post-flop and can be quite tricky....and if you suck post-flop as much as I do then your pre-flop advantage (from just playing better starting-cards) can quickly go out the window if you fail to adjust.