Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Duke]

Do what you can to just call on the flop, then raise 2 guys on the turn. I think I lay down a couple kings here, expecting to see aces a bazillion percent of the time.

~D

[afish]

I call (contrary to Clarkmeister, calling has got to be better than folding). There is no way I am folding to a strong player who could be raising overcards or a big draw. I don't see the value in knocking out the weak player with a three bet. Also, if Dynasty four-bets, I am going to have to pay it off, and there are a lot of scare cards that can come on the river that are going to turn this into a payoff hand.

[Pipedream]

Well if hero knows you even a little bit he folds this hand on the turn to your raise. He probably knows that you wouldn't make it 3 bets to his initial raise preflop with anything less that AA-JJ,AK and maybe TT. At least that would be my read if I was hero. There is also a weak player in between you two, meaning there is much less chance you're making a semi bluff play because of 'implicit collusion'. I would read you for a pair larger than mine and muck.

Pipedream

[Joe Tall]

With the calls station stuck between us it unlikely you are making a move at this pot as you are likely holiding a higher overpair.

The only hand I think I can beat is TT and I fold.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Clark,

I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options.

I agree that calling is the worst option. However, what do you put Dynasty on that you are ahead. Precisely TT? Maybe, but doubtful, 88?

Thanks,
Joe Tall

[TimTimSalabim]

It's close between calling and folding. I'd like someone to explain how 3-betting out of position here can possibly be better than calling.

Edit: If he was weak-tight, I can see the possible advantage of 3-betting to get him to fold something like QQ. But since he's been described as weak-loose, and he has certainly played the hand like a calling station, I don't see him folding the best hand.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot... I would estimate there is only a 10%

[/ QUOTE ]

Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[Jamie Collins]

Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[Jamie Collins]

Hello China,

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a heck of a lot more likely he waited til the turn to put pressure on MP and loosey with AA-QQ than 88,10-10. And if I'm wrong I would stongly recommend against waiting til the turn with 88 or 10-10. Dynasty's best chance of winning the hand if he's ahead would be to make MP face 2 cold on the flop with his overcards.

What I think is more interesting is if Dynasty would play Ak/q of clubs this way.

But as far as meta-game considerations he won't get MP to fold a better hand to him for the next month if he shows down 10-10, 88, Ak/q here. Which is fine, Dynasty would just have to make a strategy adjustment.

Regards,
Jamie

[Softrock]

Dynasty - I'm answering before reading what anyone else says. I've never played with you but read plenty of your posts. Seems you most likely have a pair bigger than JJ or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Some possibility you have TT or 99 but I find those less likely. Hard for me to do anything other than go into check-call mode. I realize I could be giving you a draw to an A or K but given my position I just can't see the value in being more aggressive here.