|
|
#11
12-22-2005, 02:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Pocket TT
No one that you want to fold is folding for 1 bet on the turn after that flop action. The most likely holdings for your opponents are a weak jack (never folding), a flush draw (which you are now behind), a straight draw (which may have just come in and which is never folding), or a lower pocket pair (drawing to 2 outs).
You're behind here a lot, so you can't bet for value. Since no one that you want to fold is going to fold, you can't bet to protect your hand. So you should check and see the river. This has the happy side-effect of dodging a check/raise (to which you would have to fold!) from a draw that just got there. Once you "show weakness" by checking, some weaker hands might bet for you, or a stronger hand might bet. Either way, it costs you the same 1 BB to call the river as it would to bet the turn, plus you get to see a showdown, plus you win an extra bet from a lower PP that would have folded the turn but has now bet out because you are "weak". Does that help? 
|
|
#12
12-22-2005, 03:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
[ QUOTE ]
Does that help? [/ QUOTE ] Yes and no. I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J) We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet) If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet) So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small). I guess what it really comes down to is what probability I assign myself for being ahead because if's it's better than 1/3, then betting and getting 2 calls or betting and potentially getting a fold are both fine. If I think I am almost certainly behind, then checking and folding saves a bet. If I think I am probably behind and the river is dangerous, then checking and folding saves a bet.
|
|
#13
12-22-2005, 03:50 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
By the way, in the actual hand UTG had 45 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and completed the STR8 draw on the river to win the hand. MP1 had a pair of 99s.
|
|
#15
12-22-2005, 05:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
I fold the flop.
|
|
#16
12-22-2005, 06:28 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
[ QUOTE ]
I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J) [/ QUOTE ] In either case giving a free card isn't a total disaster. That's a total of 5 potential outs against you worst case scenario. It's worth it to avoid a check raise from a completed draw or just wasting a bet against a Jack. [ QUOTE ] We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet) If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet) [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]it is? You're not calling to hit your flush? [ QUOTE ] So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small). [/ QUOTE ] This would be true without the flush draw. Either HPFAP or SSHE talks about checking behind on the turn with a lot of outs and a hand that might be good and betting on the turn with a hand that might be good with a few outs. [ QUOTE ] I guess what it really comes down to is what probability I assign myself for being ahead because if's it's better than 1/3, then betting and getting 2 calls or betting and potentially getting a fold are both fine. If I think I am almost certainly behind, then checking and folding saves a bet. If I think I am probably behind and the river is dangerous, then checking and folding saves a bet. [/ QUOTE ] I think there's very little chance you are ahead at this point in the hand.
|
|
#18
12-22-2005, 06:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
[quote}I think there's very little chance you are ahead at this point in the hand.
[/ QUOTE ] Then you are pretty much arguing for check and fold because even if I get my flush, it's probably not good assuming UTG is on a draw. I can't assume he might have me beat on the turn and then get all fuzzy about making my T high flush on the river when a 4th Club hits.
|
|
#19
12-22-2005, 06:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
I somewhat agree with folding the flop as well. It wasn't my first thought, but MP1 donked into us after we showed the aggression pre-flop. TT is an above average hand, but do we really want to get involved in a multi-way pot where we very well could already be drawing to 2 outs?
I think this is a raise or fold flop. Calling here doesn't do much, and I don't think raisiing is correct because it's almost certainly not for value, and you probably aren't going to be able to pick up the pot with the texture of the board. Just throw it away and look for a better spot.
|
|
#20
12-23-2005, 03:28 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Pocket TT
[ QUOTE ]
I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J) [/ QUOTE ] This could be what's happening, but this is a pretty lucky parlay for you if so. It's more likely that you're behind and/or that no one is folding anyway (as i described above). [ QUOTE ] We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet) If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet) [/ QUOTE ] All other things being equal, i would rather spend 1 bet to get to showdown than 1 bet to fold to an unknown's turn check/raise. [ QUOTE ] So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small). [/ QUOTE ] UTG isn't folding for 1 bet on the turn after calling two cold on the flop. I don't think you have much fold equity, and i really doubt you're getting both villains to fold here. For this and all the other reasons i've mentioned, i think the check turn/call river line is better. I also think this decision is close, and i have laid out my arguments and you don't have to agree with me and neither one of us should lose much sleep either way.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
