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#21
11-15-2005, 02:56 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
Because the pot is big and he has aces? I'm not sure I get your point. [/ QUOTE ] OK... That's a fair statement. My comments are made using the read given that Villain has TAG stats. Now, maybe I overstepped and credited him with the ability to think and my comments are made in that context. I may, obviously, be wrong. People call the river because "it;s just one more" all of the time. If the question were put, "should Villain (if you were Villain) call hero's river bet?" Would you? Edit to say that it is not uncommon for people to say that I credit my opponents with more thinking than I should. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] 
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#22
11-15-2005, 02:57 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why will he pay off? [/ QUOTE ] Because he's suffering from entitlement syndrome. [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think he _should_ fold AA? Why or why not? That could become a very interesting discussion.
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#23
11-15-2005, 02:59 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why will he pay off? [/ QUOTE ] Because he's suffering from entitlement syndrome. [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think he _should_ fold AA? Why or why not? That could become a very interesting discussion. [/ QUOTE ] If he knows his opponent, yes, he should. It's a pretty [censored] board and he has top pair. If he doesn't know anything other than jason has folded for a while and now he's not folding, then I think calling down after the turn raise is more reasonable. Rob
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#24
11-15-2005, 02:59 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
IMHO, some possibilities are so remote they need not figure into an analysis of a situation. [/ QUOTE ] When you have all the time in the world and a >5% swing (not sure that that is the case here) makes the difference between a bet and a check... remote possbilities should be considered if only for the purpose of thoroughness.
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#26
11-15-2005, 03:00 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
Most of the time I hate SSHE based arguments that amount to "the pot is big don't fold" when hand analysis and reads make for a much better explanation of things, but if Villain has AA here, against jason (who I assume is an unknown to him) then basically he has to think "the pot is big I shouldn't fold."
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#28
11-15-2005, 03:03 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
I know this is a remote consideration given the board and how bad it is to use this line with AA here, but the fact that villain may/may not be aware of the concept of checkraising the river to save bets adds a bit of weight to bet-calling the river. It's a stretch though, since anyone good enough to know how to make a play like that should be able to discern that this is a bad board/player to use this against.
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#29
11-15-2005, 03:03 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[11:01] <BDids> I want to bet, fold in jason's hand
[11:01] <BDids> but I can't [11:01] <BDids> so I bet call [11:02] <BDids> if you have a solid enough read, he's never raising you with a hand you beat there [11:02] <BDids> but 100 hands [11:03] <BDids> isn't enough for me to put him strictly on AA KK QQ based on that preflop and flop play [11:03] <BDids> so I pay off like fish
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#30
11-15-2005, 03:05 PM
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Re: A hand Entity and I talked about
[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time I hate SSHE based arguments that amount to "the pot is big don't fold" when hand analysis and reads make for a much better explanation of things, but if Villain has AA here, against jason (who I assume is an unknown to him) then basically he has to think "the pot is big I shouldn't fold." [/ QUOTE ] I was trying to come up with a game theory argument for AA calling the river, however unfortunately given the action so far it really really seems like the AA is dicked. I think the SSHE argument holds much more weight when your opponent is "an unknown TAG" or "a 19/12/2", because then you have much less predictability and much more deviation from optimal play. Especially at the 2/4 level (although this hand actually doesn't have a listed limit). And the SSHE argument definitely holds a ton of weight when your opponent is not a TAG, because then there is a huge component of unpredictability to his actions.
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