Hand vs. Joe Cassidy

Ezcheeze · #1 09-20-2005, 11:14 PM

5 handed 200 400 game at the Borgata.
The two times it's been folded to Joe in the SB he's raised and I've called in the BB and folded to his flop bet.
The third time he open limps, I check with 89o in the BB.
Flop is K J T rainbow. He checks I bet he raises I call.
Turn is Ko he checks I bet he raises I...?

mike l. · #2 09-20-2005, 11:30 PM

fold he has a big hand. he probably limps with very good hands there and raises medicore ones. i had JJ one time and he cold called my raise with A2o and bet and raised the whole way with it and caught an A on the river. seeing as ill probably never play 2-4 again that is my joe cassidy story. someone else told me he's the greatest limit hold em player ever.

J_V · #3 09-20-2005, 11:35 PM

I agree 100% with this post.

Ezcheeze · #4 09-21-2005, 02:47 AM

I believe hes good enough to mix up his play. So while he will limp sometimes with big hands, it's more like limp 20% raise 80%. A hand like KJ or QT he will raise more than that I think since there isn't nearly as much benefit to slowplaying it. He's also going limp sometimes with pretty bad hands like mine and worse since folding would still be giving up too much and raising them everytime would be an easily exploitable strategy.
Taking this into account I don't see how he could have a fullhouse or str8 often enough to warrant me folding the turn.

sam h · #5 09-21-2005, 03:54 PM

I agree with this analysis. Plus, what is he putting you on, having not raised preflop then played that board aggressively? Probably a weak one pair hand like J5 or T8 or draw like Qx.

I think there is plenty of motivation for him to try to move you off the hand here and thus you have to see the river for sure and also consider calling down if you only make a pair.

ike · #6 09-22-2005, 12:34 PM

Given that theres very little chance he has a pocket pair 77 or smaller, making a pair doesn't improve your hand much. If you read him weak enough that you can call with a pair you should just raise his river bet regardless of the final card (or 3bet the turn and follow through, or something).

flawless_victory · #7 09-20-2005, 11:44 PM

i dont like your flop bet here. dont like the turn bet either... seems like you are just walking face first into these checkraises.
you check your option, and he didnt didnt bet when it came KJT. hmmm. most ppl try to pick it up there, but ive never played w/ him, so i dont now... now he checks turn, most ppl wil bet there... hmm.
this turn checkraise with the lead is v v often a bluff/semibluff, but here i just dont see it.
you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has, so youre getting a worse price to stay involved since you are gonna have to risk more to win if hes bluffing and you are gonna lose at least three bets when he is full and you get there on the end, and might only win one (or none) when YHIG.
looks like a fold to me, but threebetting and following through on the end is the second best option i suppose.

Ezcheeze · #8 09-21-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this relevant?

[ QUOTE ]
so youre getting a worse price to stay involved since you are gonna have to risk more to win if hes bluffing and you are gonna lose at least three bets when he is full and you get there on the end, and might only win one (or none) when YHIG

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good point about risking more to bluff him. However, the business about him being full and losing bets when I get there is very insignificant since it relies both on him having a fullhouse (an extremely unlikely proposition) and me getting there on the end both occuring.

flawless_victory · #9 09-21-2005, 04:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this relevant?

[/ QUOTE ]
of course. if you could beat Qhigh, then you could call down and very possibly win (bye beating Qhigh in a showdown) getting effective odds of 7:2, if you have to bluff raise (threebet turn,betriver or call,raise river.) you are getting 7:3.

Ezcheeze · #10 09-21-2005, 05:03 AM

So I guess your original statement was meant to indicate that I couldn't feasibly call down and win here. It's such an obvious statement it through me off a bit.

Yes, 7:3 if he calls the turn (though I'm not quite sure I'm still betting the river if he calls the turn).
I'm also getting 3:1 on a str8 turn bluff.