Boring Borgata 40/80 hand?

[Rubeskies]

I didn't like it but here it is...

7-handed 40/80 at the Borgata.

SB is TAGish and relatively straightforward.
UTG is loose passive.


PREFLOP: UTG limps, folded to SB who calls, I check 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB.

FLOP: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

TURN: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero calls

RIVER: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero folds.

[Danenania]

I'm thinking a turn fold might be in order. How live can we be drawing?

[Spicymoose]

Basically your plan here is to call any diamond, 7, or 4 on the river. But there are only 14 of these cards (or slightly less, considering some diamonds could be taken), meaning you are only calling 25% of all rivers. You are trying to win 5 BB (3 BB pot, and SBs turn and river bets). If you were always good on the river, you would still only win 5 BB 25% of the time, and lose 1 BB 75% of the time. But, considering you are only good on the river sometimes, this plan doesnt work. If we say you are good on the river 50% of the time when you hit, then that means that you lose 2 BB 50% of the times you hit, and win 5 BB 50% of the time. This is a net of 3.5 BB when you do hit.

So, now 75% of the time we pay 1 BB, and 25% of the time we net 3.5 BB, which is a slightly EV+ situation.

This means that if we are good on the river 50% when we hit, your plan is good. If you don't think we are good on the river 50% of the time when we hit, your plan isn't good.

Hi Rubeskies-

I think if you call this turn you need to call the river, too. I'm worried we're folding too often to a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here, or something else we beat such as Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3.

I am OK folding this turn as the pot's still pretty small and we may be drawing dead, but we should be good enough to merit the 6.5:1 odds we're getting here once he bets the river.

[Redd]

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I'm thinking a turn fold might be in order. How live can we be drawing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you assume we're always behind at this point? It seems like SB could be getting fancy with a high diamond on the flop; especially since I don't know why he'd risk a 3-way check-raise with a made but vulnerable hand.

[Spicymoose]

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[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking a turn fold might be in order. How live can we be drawing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you assume we're always behind at this point? It seems like SB could be getting fancy with a high diamond on the flop; especially since I don't know why he'd risk a 3-way check-raise with a made but vulnerable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that we are always behind, it just whether we are ahead often enough. If your plan is to call the turn and river, regardless of what falls, you have to hope you win 40% of the time. I just don't think that we win this 40% of the time if we call the turn and river regardless of what comes.

If your plan is to call the turn, but only call a good river, see my above post.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking a turn fold might be in order. How live can we be drawing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you assume we're always behind at this point? It seems like SB could be getting fancy with a high diamond on the flop; especially since I don't know why he'd risk a 3-way check-raise with a made but vulnerable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I would have to be there to be sure but my feeling is that a move like this from a straightforward player in a live game means trouble. I think we're generally in pretty bad shape against his range which should be heavily weighted towards flushes, sets, two pairs, and pairs + big diamonds.

[ QUOTE ]
Well I would have to be there to be sure but my feeling is that a move like this from a straightforward player in a live game means trouble. I think we're generally in pretty bad shape against his range which should be heavily weighted towards flushes, sets, two pairs, and pairs + big diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dane-

This seems an excellent reason to fold the turn. I still maintain we need to call the river if we call the turn, getting 6.5:1.

-'daz