Nut flush draw w/ mid pair....

[Kyriefurro]

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Could you explain these straight 'redraws'? I'm not quite understanding how it matters.

As far as I can tell, my best straight hand is now:
A_Q_T , with the queen and ten already on the board. With this call, I'm going to need a K AND J to make it.... which is about a 3% chance to happen.

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You've pretty much got it right. A "redraw" is a straight or flush draw where you'd have to go runner-runner to get there. It is most certainly a long shot (3% sounds about right on this one), but it does add a little strength to your hand.

Ed Miller has a section in SSHE that talks about how to count how many "outs" a redraw is worth. Roughly a flush redraw is worth about 1.5-2, a straight redraw is worth anywhere from 0-1.5, depending on how connected the existing cards are and how strong the straight made is.

I'd guess that this redraw is only worth 3/4 of an out at best. You need two cards to get there, but you are drawing to the nut straight.

Mostly I mention it to be sure I consider all the possible hands that are out. It helps to keep me from making a mistake because I failed to see it.

[swolfe]

i'd personally have limped behind preflop. if you're going to raise this, you need to raise more. i'd have made it $3 with the 1 limper.

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How is it 3:1 ?
It's a $15 call into a $24 pot. That's not even 1:2

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My math:
$4 in the pot + Villain bets $4 = $8
Hero raises to $8 = $16
Villain raises another $15 = $31

Hero must call another $7 to match villain's bet.

Looks like a little over 4:1 to me.

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Uhhh, you might want take a look at your math again.

I thought a redraw is where, e.g., even if your opponent "outdraws" you, you still have outs to re-outdraw him. Can someone please correct or confirm this?

[swolfe]

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3:1 on a call, and you must be joking when you said you folded.

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How is it 3:1 ?
It's a $15 call into a $24 pot. That's not even 1:2.

The way I figured it, I had:
- 9 diamonds that could help me
- a few outs that could come up with some straight draws (would need runner runner)
- 2 T's that would give me trips
- other options for 2 pair (4 outs)

With flush overlap, I'm looking at about 14-15 outs here.

The pot odds aren't great, as he's fully committed and I'm getting no implied odds at all.

thoughts?

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you have 14 outs against a one pair hand like QJs and are actually a 50.5 to 49.5 favorite. if he has QT, you still have 44.5% equity with 12 outs to win. if he has QQ, then you only have 9 outs minus redraws for his full house...still 29% equity.

looks like the pot is $31 with $15 to call. it's only slightly -EV if he has a set and +EV any other time you're behind.

[Kyriefurro]

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Hero must call another $7 to match villain's bet.

Looks like a little over 4:1 to me.

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Uhhh, you might want take a look at your math again.

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Ugh! You're right. Hero must call another $15 into a $31 pot. Closer to 2:1, which is a whole nother story.

Here's something to clear up the total pot size:

Pot at $4 before flop.
Villain bet 4, I made it 8
He then matched the 8 (4 more), and THEN put 15 more to go.

So, the total pot was 4+4+8+4+15 = $35 total.

To me, it would have cost 15 to call his all-in, so 15:35, which is just a little worse than 1:2.

I'm not quite sure how this is an easy call.
There's a good chance he has some kind of made hand, which means I'm relying on draws to survive. He's also already all-in, so I have no chance at him folding, and no chance at making any more money.

Does it make more sense to pick my battles in better situations? This doesn't seem like a large +EV situation to me.

It's probably slightly positive....but why risk the majority of my chips on one big hand?

"Villain is very aggressive, but not an awful player. Will call down some big hands with top pair, medium kicker. For the most part, a LAG."

Wouldn't surprise me if he's pushing his flush draw and that he's drawing to 1 or 2 outs on his straight flush draw here. Bizaare fold imo if you're adequately bankrolled.

[Kyriefurro]

You indicated that villain is "very aggressive." I think most of us have assumed this means Loose Aggressive (I know I did).

An opponent like this could be pushing with:
Top pair - with or without a good kicker
Middle pair/decent kicker
Bottom pair/good kicker
A flush draw
OESD
A mid-sized PP
Absolutely nothing

You are already ahead of an aweful lot of this, and if you aren't you have a ton of outs that will let you catch up.

Even if villain is TAG or a thinking LAG he may be pushing because he thinks his hand needs to go to showdown. If that's the case then all his chips will still end up in the middle by the river. By pushing now instead of dragging it out he adds some nice fold equity to the mix.

The bottom line is that your chances of winning this hand are very good.

[kurto]

A really aggressive player might also play a JK or 9J this way.

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I'm not quite sure how this is an easy call.

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You are getting better than 2:1 odds, and you most likely have ~50% pot equity even if you are behind on the flop. It doesn't get much easier.