Week 2 steam games

NajdorfDefense · #1 09-13-2005, 01:59 PM

college
fla v Tenn has gone from 3.5 to 5.5 already and higher.
Utep from -10 to -12.5
Vandy from -5.5 to -3

pro
Tampa from 1.5 to 2.5
STL from -1 to +1
KC from Even to -1.5

love KC, gl to all [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]
Naj

ctv1116 · #2 09-13-2005, 02:02 PM

So is it advantageous to bet on the teams where the line has moved? So bet against Tampa and STL and for KC?

scott8 · #3 09-13-2005, 02:25 PM

I think its important to analyze why the "steam" move is happening.

My biggest win last weekend was waiting until right before kickoff and getting SF + 6, moving from +4.5

That is a huge move and happened IMO, not because the smart money was going on the Rams, but because the tourists wanted to get even for losing the early games.

Anyway, thought it should be mentioned.

-SC

Slacker13 · #4 09-13-2005, 03:32 PM

So far this is what I have:

Steam Plays for September, 13th 2005 record:
Time of Play Game Date Game # Team Line Result
10:26:46am 2005-09-17 164 Air Force -2½
9:36:46am 2005-09-15 101 Utah -3
8:32:45am 2005-09-17 145 Illinois +22
8:15:19am 2005-09-13 962 ARI Over 8½
7:54:19am 2005-09-13 956 CUB Over 8½-120
7:38:06am 2005-09-13 966 SFO Over 7½
Steam Plays for September, 12th 2005 record:
Time of Play Game Date Game # Team Line Result
3:26:33pm 2005-09-17 133 Oklahoma +7
2:53:49pm 2005-09-17 111 West Virginia +4
2:44:45pm 2005-09-17 127 Florida State +1
2:40:23pm 2005-09-17 106 Syracuse +9½
8:12:12am 2005-09-12 901 ATL Over 8½ -20 Lost

Slacker13 · #5 09-13-2005, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think its important to analyze why the "steam" move is happening.

[/ QUOTE ]
The moves that count the most are the ones right before kickoff/tipoff.

ctv1116 · #6 09-13-2005, 07:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think its important to analyze why the "steam" move is happening.

[/ QUOTE ]
The moves that count the most are the ones right before kickoff/tipoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain please.

craig r · #7 09-13-2005, 07:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think its important to analyze why the "steam" move is happening.

[/ QUOTE ]
The moves that count the most are the ones right before kickoff/tipoff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I completely agree with this. The "pros" generally bet early. Wouldn't those matter more? Towards the end of the week is when the squares bet and a lot of times they are getting worse lines or are betting it up (albeit slowly) for the pros.

craig

Slacker13 · #8 09-13-2005, 08:52 PM

During the week the line moves are from the general public so they mean nothing. But if you see a move right before kickoff, it means that alot of money came in on that game. It is coming from the pros. Pros do bet early in the week when the lines are first posted but their are plenty of pros that bet right at kickoff and it's those bets that move the line. The general public is not moving lines 1 minute before kickoff. But the only way your going to see these line moves on time and be able to take advantage of them is by paying $550/month for Don Best, which I do. It more than pays for itself once you get good at reading the moves.

scott8 · #9 09-13-2005, 09:10 PM

Then explain the 49ers games last Sunday where the line moved from +4.5 to 6 within the hour before kickoff.

Every "pro" I know said take the points.

Slacker13 · #10 09-13-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then explain the 49ers games last Sunday where the line moved from +4.5 to 6 within the hour before kickoff.

Every "pro" I know said take the points.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I am talking about is right before kickoff, I am talking 2 minutes and less. The move on the SF game was just the public moving the line. Unless you have Don Best software you are never going to be able to take advantage of the line moves.

The days with the biggest moves is Saturdays with College football, you will not see more than a few big moves per week in the pros. College & Pro basketabll is another time when you will see many big moves right before tipoff.