Interesting QQ vs. PF capper

madscout · #1 05-30-2005, 06:07 PM

Villain is 22/17/2.6 after 40 hands. I'm giving him a standard preflop capping range of AA-JJ and AK.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets...

My plan is to bet the turn and fold to a raise.
If I get a call I will bet the river and fold to a raise.
How'd I do?

brazilio · #2 05-30-2005, 06:31 PM

I'd be pretty surprised if you got KK to fold. I hear WA/WB is good here, and you're now way way behind all but JJ and QQ. It seems bizarre to me, but I think I could c/c c/f.

madscout · #3 05-30-2005, 06:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be pretty surprised if you got KK to fold. I hear WA/WB is good here, and you're now way way behind all but JJ and QQ. It seems bizarre to me, but I think I could c/c c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

In analyzing this hand afterwards, I calculated the % time I need QQ or KK to fold to make this line +EV. I refined villain's range slightly given the flop action and came up with a number around 10%.

aK13 · #4 05-30-2005, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be pretty surprised if you got KK to fold. I hear WA/WB is good here, and you're now way way behind all but JJ and QQ. It seems bizarre to me, but I think I could c/c c/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

In analyzing this hand afterwards, I calculated the % time I need QQ or KK to fold to make this line +EV. I refined villain's range slightly given the flop action and came up with a number around 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's thinking, AA would have capped that flop, and AK probabl wouldn't have raised that flop.

brazilio · #5 05-30-2005, 07:11 PM

Don't forget the times you're against AA or AK and he calls the turn and raises the river.

madscout · #6 05-31-2005, 10:26 AM

Ok, I changed the analysis slightly to be more realistic and got a number of 22%

After the flop action I have to greatly discount the number of AK combinations from 16 to say, 2. Certainly As Ks would three bet the flop, and he might 3 bet a different AK if he was feeling frisky.

So at the turn we have 9.5BB, and the following villain combinations (18 total):

AK (2)
AA (3)
KK (6)
QQ (1)
JJ (6)

Lets say that if villain has AA or AK, he will raise the turn half the time, and wait until the river to raise the other half. If villain has KK-JJ he will fold x% of the time and call me down (100-x)% of the time:

EV = (5/18) * ( .5*-1BB + .5*-2BB) {AA, AK}
+(6/18) * (x*9.5BB + (1-x)*-2BB) {KK}
+(1/18) * (x*4.75BB + (1-x)*0BB) {QQ}
+(6/18) * (x*0BB + (1-x)*2BB) {JJ}

For EV > 0, we get x > 22%

If you are villain, would you fold KK or QQ > 22% of the time? How about the JJ? How are my assumptions for the EV calculation? You'll notice I don't consider the river card at all. Is it correct to assume that the times I improve vs the times villain improves cancel each other out equally?

Thanks!
~madscout

brazilio · #7 05-31-2005, 11:43 AM

You shouldn't really consider improvement cancelling each other out, as

1. You're drawing dead against AA
2. I don't know what your action may be if a K drops on the river, I'm guessing you can c/f.

I also wouldn't count JJ for the full 6, a preflop cap with JJ doesn't happen all that often. If he calls the turn and you improve on the river, then you can probably 95% put him on JJ or KK, I don't think AA is going to wait until the river to raise. I just pointed that out, I'd put him as doing that probably 5% of the time maybe. Now AK could perhaps call the turn and river expecting a chop or a loss to AA, but you've got 6 instances of AA, and only 2 of AK, which I'd say is good. All in all, I think improvement favors you. Even then, I don't think it'll count more than 2% of your EV, and I don't see KK dropping this more than 20% of the time.

Super Pro · #8 05-31-2005, 11:52 AM

i'd be shocked, just SHOCKED, if your line ever got him to fold KK.

madscout · #9 05-31-2005, 01:37 PM

Villain called the turn, and folded to a river blank. What in the world did Villain have?! The most likely hand is JJ I think.

~mad