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Old 12-30-2005, 09:05 PM
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Default $100 mtt ub tourney

heres the situation...late in tourney there is about 39 players left, ive got 25000 in chips. my table is very tight aggressive but one player (probably the best tourney player at the table, very smart aggressive, kinda controlled chaos) anyways need some feedback. villain has been preflop raising lots and always follows with a continuation bet after flop..blinds are 200 400 folds around to him he makes it 1600 to go, i call with 99 so does the bb...flop comes down 9h Th 2h...he checks im on the button so i bet the pot 5000, bb folds...to the maniac...he thinks for a bit and moves all in for 21000 total...now he was 4th in chips and i was 2nd...not sure what to do here. if i fold i still have about 20000 and still in good position...if i call im probably behind or he has an Ah or overpair...(winner of this hand would have about a 16k lead..if i win its over 20k) im not sure if this is a stupid post or not...what would you put him on..this is the first time he has checked after a raise, then he check raises all in...do you do that with the nuts? or is he doing it with just an Ah, i dont think doing this with an overpair is a good play, its either Ah or he has it? this late in the tourney i figured he had it...anyways done rambling...what would you do, what does he have? (is an obvious call if you cant care about placing, 20th was the cut off)
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Old 12-30-2005, 09:46 PM
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Default Re: $100 mtt ub tourney

First, it sounds like you're calling T16000 into a pot of T31000. That means you're getting nearly 2:1 to call.

Assuming your opponent is not on a pure bluff, what are some made and semibluff hands he can have? And how often will you win?

AhKh: 35%
AhTc: 70%
TcTs: 4%
AhAc: 65%
KhKc: 65%

In other words, you're getting the right odds to make this call. If your villain has TT, that's the breaks. If he has the made flush, that's exceptionally painful, but you DO have odds to call, so if you lose, that's harsh. But if you win you're in *great* position to be way up in the money.

I personally think a naked high heart - possibly as part of a pp - is the most likely holding here, because I think the made flush smooth calls you and I think the non-heart hand leads the betting since he was the pfr.

So yeah, I call.
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Old 12-30-2005, 10:21 PM
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Default Re: $100 mtt ub tourney

thanks for the reply..much appreciated. i know the odds i didnt really break it down like that. makes it look like a insta call, i called him and he showed Ah5h, i should have known he wouldnt do that on a draw for all his chips that late and in the position he was in, that was my thinking before i called. oh well his flush held up and i finished 22. dont really care about placing, playing to win...if your gonna win you have to gambooool in that spot..
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