Two Plus Two Older Archives Sample size and reliability of flops seen percentage?
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#1
12-08-2003, 07:12 PM
 Adde Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Sweden Posts: 719
Sample size and reliability of flops seen percentage?

How big a sample is needed to draw any conclusions about [flops seen %]?

If I have PokerTracker data that says a player is seeing 30% of the flops, how reliable is this number given a sample size of 10/20/30/40/50/100/etc hands? Anyone know of a formula to calculate this?

#2
12-08-2003, 07:31 PM
 bigpooch Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Vancouver, Canada Posts: 759
Re: Sample size and reliability of flops seen percentage?

Don't put too much reliability on that statistic! It is
much more important to make what you believe (and better
if it is in reality!) are decisions with the largest +EV.
Flop% doesn't take into account that you are in the blinds,
whether the game is now 9-handed or 8-handed or game
conditions have changed so you can see more flops (maybe the
game has become very loose passive) assuming you are playing
at a ring game. There are so many factors that are much
more important than this number.
#3
12-08-2003, 07:56 PM
 Adde Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Sweden Posts: 719
Re: Sample size and reliability of flops seen percentage?

I see your point.

Still, I think there has to be some validity in knowing the flops seen % contra not knowing it. (And as for my case, the blinds are counted for, using [voluntary pay money to see the flop]), and I only use 8-10 player tables in the stats).

If you have a sample of 20 hands and a player is seeing 50% of the flops, isn't it more probable that he is loose than not?

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