The tyranny of the majority (long)

[jedinite]

I just finished Harrington v2 this weekend.

Harrington v2 has a section where he talks a little about table image regarding recently played hands and how that should affect your decisions. He writes more about tightening up your limp/open standards and/or continuation bet standards if you've won several hands recently (especially had continuation bets take down several pots recently).

I would have liked to see him expand on that further, but I immediately had the though on reading that section back to the referenced starting thread you'd posted last week, Atticus.

I think the way Harrinton puts it is perfect - if you've won several pots in recent memory without showing down a hand, especially with the pushbot strategy, anyone paying attention is going to significantly losen their calling standards.

Its also obvious that the more widespread the publication of the pushbot strategy comes (and the more widespread the adoption becomes, as the strategy will spread beyond 2+2 just by a few observant players who pick it up from exposure) the less effective its going to become - people drastically lessening calling standards from the blinds, turning bubble play into a crapshoot....

I intended to run a lot of ICM numbers with really wide calling standards to build this scenario and try to come up with a model cutoff for that fourth push (or whatever number) - but haven't done the groundwork yet.

[Scuba Chuck]

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link says 'forbidden'

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Trying again...

linky

[Nicholasp27]

works!

thanks

[ewing55]

I understand and agree with what you are saying, but I also believe the opposite it true. I have pushed A9 from SB, JJ from the button, AK from CO and then AA from UTG, all in a row 5 handed. I knew, and was hoping for a call, but everyone insta-mucked. Sometimes I think everyone starts thinking "He's gone completely nuts, and I'm staying out of his way!" They will even start folded their SB to my BB.

Of course maybe everyone got horrible cards on all of those hands, but I've seen it over and over again. I've started paying attention to my feelings where there is a bully/maniac at the table and I find that sometimes I get into this "if I don't have AA I might as well fold" mode.

I agree that table image is critical, but it is not always acted upon as we would think as logical.

I have recently changed my game and am now starting into the later rounds usually with more chips and am trying to learn more about being a bully/maniac. This discussion is very helpful.

-------------Jeff

[Supersetoy]

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Its also obvious that the more widespread the publication of the pushbot strategy comes (and the more widespread the adoption becomes, as the strategy will spread beyond 2+2 just by a few observant players who pick it up from exposure) the less effective its going to become - people drastically lessening calling standards from the blinds, turning bubble play into a crapshoot....

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Exactly my thoughts. (Referring to the crapshoot). I've already seen this happen both on Party and Stars (from the 30s all the way up to the 200s).

[AtticusFinch]

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Its also obvious that the more widespread the publication of the pushbot strategy comes (and the more widespread the adoption becomes, as the strategy will spread beyond 2+2 just by a few observant players who pick it up from exposure) the less effective its going to become - people drastically lessening calling standards from the blinds, turning bubble play into a crapshoot....

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Exactly my thoughts. (Referring to the crapshoot). I've already seen this happen both on Party and Stars (from the 30s all the way up to the 200s).

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Me too, although it depends on the time of day. I think it's a regional thing at the moment, but only a matter of time before it spreads.

I think that this development makes it even more important to try and find another way to gain an advantage at the bubble. I think developing "feel" (or its technical equivalence) for push frequency and table image is one potential way to do that.

[TheCodeDog]

800 vs 1000 chip is awfully Party specific.

[raptor517]

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One thing that I think you misunderstand: When you are looking at a push/fold situation, it is pretty much a pure math play. The fact that you look like you are on tilt and/or have pushed the last 4 hands DOES matter. You just adjust the calling ranges of your opponents and re-evaluate. There really shouldn't be too much need for discussing it further, except for maybe talking about how opponents adjust their calling ranges depending on prior hands.


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this thread has been around a while for me not to even bother reading it. ive been really lazy lately but now im in a required study hall at the library, so long posts are goot. anyways, jman hits on the point i think everyone should notice.

basically, it doesnt matter how many hands you have pushed in the past, as long as you can predict the calling ranges of your opponents and adjust your pushes to that. so what if his range includes pure trash hands. so what if u get called by 58s cuz hes made u been stealing the blinds. it IS pure math. nothing more. learn to put your opponents on calling ranges. its much more important that learning when to call pushes. holla

[AtticusFinch]

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learn to put your opponents on calling ranges. its much more important that learning when to call pushes. holla

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We're going in circles. I'll make it really simple:

1) Table image affects calling ranges.
2) So in order to assess calling ranges accurately, you must find a way to analyze table image.
3) Therefore, ignore table image at your peril.

You cannot make an accurate probabilistic analysis without using ALL relevant information at your disposal (Cf. the Monty Hall Dilemma.)

What I'm trying to get at is we need some way to measure or estimate how table image affects calling ranges. It may be a fuzzy concept, but no one can deny that it has an effect, and a significant one at that.

After that, you're right, it's all math.

[raptor517]

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3) Therefore, ignore table image at your peril.

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i will. sure do hope they call with 10 high. just automatically assume they call with a whole bunch of crap. cant go too wrong that way. holla