Big Pot, Looose opponents, when to fold?

[belloc]

I wasn't going to post this hand that I played last night (live 4/8), but Will's "The Cost of Mistakes in Poker" post made me think harder about it.

It's nine handed, I'm in Seat 1 (MP1), opponents are:

Seat 2 (MP2): Very loose-typical 20something

Seat 7 (BB): Very loose-passive middle aged guy

Seat 8 (UTG): Loose-typical 20something

Seat 9 (UTG+1): Very Loose Very Aggressive 20something [he's a NL player primarily and donks around in the 4/8 to blow off steam. good at reading hands, but doesn't understand limit poker].


Preflop: UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, I cap with AA, MP2 cold calls 4,BB cold calls 3 more, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls. (Five to the flop for 20.5 SB)

Flop: T8Xr (X is a baby, maybe like a 4 or 5)

Checked to UTG+1 who bets, I raise, MP2 cold calls, BB cold calls, UTG cold calls, UTG+1 calls. (Five to the turn for 14.25 BB)

Turn: Q

UTG+1 donks, I raise, MP2 3-bets, everybody cold calls, I am getting 28:1 to close the betting. I ??

How can my hand be good? It probably isn't. But remember, these aren't just Party .5/1 donkeys. It's way beyond that; it's more like play money tables than anything. These are players (all four opponents!) who I've spent lots of time (this is my regular club) watching play any two cards from any position for any number of bets. But even so, turn aggression usually means something even in a game like this.

I could be drawing dead vs. a J9, drawing thin vs. a set, drawing to 8 outs vs. two pair, and there's some miniscule chance I'm even ahead against this bunch.

How sure do I have to be to fold here?

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
How sure do I have to be to fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think somebody has to flip over J9.

[private joker]

Wow, was it really a 30BB pot? I knew it was big, but... yeah I guess you have to call the turn.

[PokerSparky]

It seems like I see a something like this at least once a session whenever I play live -- you have an over pair in a large pot vs. a large field and your pretty sure your beat.

I'm certainly calling the turn and hoping for an A or the board pairing on the river. I call one and only one bet on the river for my own sanity.

There is no way I fold this closing the action.

[Jake (The Snake)]

BTW, even if all four of your opponents flipped over sets, folding would be a mistake.

You'd be getting 18:1 to hit your draw on a board offering you 28:1. This doesn't even include implied odds.

[private joker]

Also, I'm fairly certain there were 2 clubs on the board. I don't know if belloc had the Ac, but if he didn't, one of his outs was pretty dirty.

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm fairly certain there were 2 clubs on the board. I don't know if belloc had the Ac, but if he didn't, one of his outs was pretty dirty.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't remember the exact suit texture, so I left it out rather than getting it wrong. Also (on reflection) I'm certain there were four at showdown, but it's possible one player folded on the turn, which would leave three fewer BBs in pot. But I'm feeling pretty sure that everybody saw the river.

So, the river was the 8 of purple horseshoes, I say a tiny prayer of thanks to the gods of counterfeiting two pair, everybody checks to the turn threebetter, all but one call, I put in the fourth bet (third call, second overcall) closing the action getting like four thousand to one.

Is there *anybody* that finds a fold on that turn, especially given the discussion in Will's thread?