Making a stand with your low pocket pair

gyndok · #1 08-20-2005, 12:52 AM

I made this chart from the results of HU pairs vs suited connectors. A striking fact that comes out is that medium suited connectors are generally favored HU vs small pairs. I once held the mistaken belief that any pair was favored over any unpaired hand. I think it is clear from this chart that moving in with 22-77 is a desperation move that will in most cases leave you taking the worst of it if you are called. Calling all-in with 22-77 is an even worse proposition. Comments are appreciated.

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/28bdd51a...kkrBDBztP_3FfW

benkahuna · #2 08-20-2005, 07:04 AM

Not that many people will call w/ pocket pairs assuming that you have a lower pair. Gus and the other great readers will (Gus's call w/ T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was one of my favorite ever), but how often do you play against those guys?

I assume you're talking about tournament play and it really depends on just how bad your stack has gotten.
A lot of people would suspect a weak ace or two broadway cards and not call you in this situation.

gyndok · #3 08-20-2005, 07:46 AM

I guess my point in posting this is that, for me at least, it challenged a false assumption that any pair was better than 2 unpaired cards. "The trouble with 22 is that you are either a small favorite or a big dog." I think we have all heard this, but in fact, this is probably giving 22 more credit than it deserves. My new impression is that 22 is a big dog sometimes, a small dog many times, and a small favorite against only a few hands that will play with you. How does this change my strategy when I find myself short (a frequent problem for me BTW)? Well, maybe a medium or high suited connector is a better choice with which to make a stand than a low pocket pair.

benkahuna · #4 08-20-2005, 07:57 AM

Yeah, I learned this myself recently too. Andy Bloch was saying JTo is a slight favorite over a low pocket pair which I'd never previously known. Or maybe it's like dead even. I don't like the suited connector all in play. I think it's easier to be a dog because someone is much more likely to have overcards than a small pocket pair (or any pocket pair) if they call. Odds are like 1.6:1 against someone having a pocket pair at the table.

I do like your post a lot though. I think it's good to reevaluate these false assumptions. There could always be a situation in which it's applicable.

woodguy · #5 08-20-2005, 08:55 AM

The link doesn't work for me.

Regards,
Woodguy

Exitonly · #6 08-20-2005, 09:44 AM

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The link doesn't work for me.

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gyndok · #7 08-20-2005, 10:51 AM

sorry

try this

http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/bc/28bdd51a...Sd0BDBvqFw3FfW

woodguy · #8 08-20-2005, 11:00 AM

Interesting.

Thanks Gyndok.

Would be nice to see your thoughts on some strategy posts once in a while too.

Regards,
Woodguy

gyndok · #9 08-20-2005, 11:45 AM

yahoo briefcase keeps changing the url

i moved it here

winky51 · #10 08-20-2005, 12:18 PM

At times I might make my stand with a T9s or a 98s.

Consider 2-3 people limped in from early position. You read players well and are fairly certain none of them have overpairs. Anything 99 and higher they would probably raise. 88 and lower call to see if they hit a set. Most likely they all have face cards.

Now here comes you on the button or cutoff with a T9s, 98s. I have made a move here to collect all the chips. Of course your stack has to be large enough to scare them away but lets say someone still calls. You have T9s

Typical
99 vs AK 55.71% vs 44.28%

AQ vs T9s 58.95% vs 41.04%

77 vs T9s 50.04% vs 49.96%

Now I assume if anyone calls and all else folds there is a good chance one of their cards are dead because of the 2-3 early limpers. Like...

UTG AQ, UTG+1 KJs, UTG+1 AJ... all fold to you you move all in T9s, the AQ calls all else folds. Well now 1 ace is dead.

With one ace dead
AQ vs T9s 55.79% vs 44.21%

Same thing as AK vs a pair

Now consider that since 2-3 limped + blinds and only one called your getting really not odds for your move. If you win this almost coin toss you get lots of chips. I recently did this at a tournament where I had an M of 5 and the blinds were just about to go up. The big blind decided to call with KQo. I thought it was a horrible play considering 3 limpers in EP where behind him to act and my all in will cripple him if I win. The rest all folded.

Well my analysis was right. All the big cards were out from the EP limpers and he was drawing to 2 less cards in his hand. Flop came JT9 giving me 2 pair and him a straight [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Needles to say I lost but I thought it was the right move. If he didnt call and any of the others called I would have taken down a big pot.

http://www.texasholdempoker-stats.com/