Loose Passive Limit Games-What's a winning strategy?

[Vee Quiva]

I was sitting in a live 3-6 game earlier this week and this question popped into my head. The players were very passive. I was the only one who would raise preflop and usually there were 3 or 4 people willing to call 2 cold.

I consistently saw showdowns where JJ, QQ, and even KK were not raised or reraised preflop. There was an old man sitting next to me who kept flashing his cards in the middle of the hand. He would consistently check-call, even with top pair. He would only raise on the river if he had the nuts. There were probably a couple of other players playing this passive as well.

The basic strategy I have read is to play tight, wait for solid hands, and value bet. I am wondering if there is a better way.

I briefly read an idea about "schooling" where the other loose players collectively increase their equity by calling too much. Is there a defense against this?

Here's an easy hand example:

I have K-Q on the button. 3 callers and I raise. The blinds come along and everyone else calls so there are 12 small bets in the pot.

The flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It's checked to me. Now I'm pretty sure I have the best hand right now. However let's say one player has a flush draw and another player has a straight draw (open ended).

If I bet, I am giving everyone at least 13-1 odds. If I check, I am giving them infinite odds. Also bad.

If I check it through and the turn card is harmless, say a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Then I can make a better decision about my hand. If there is a late bet, I can raise and give the other draws bad odds to call. If it's checked to me, at least I am giving them 6-1 instead 13-1 or better. Plus I may win more when my hand holds up, because they may not believe I have top pair.

Does this theory hold any water?

interesting question... but a little paranoid to think they are on flush and an open-ended straight draw (i know you didn't say that specifically). i'd worry more about flush although i know straights are very sneaky.

flush and open-ended = 34 outs (minus a few as there are duplicate cards)....

flush and gun-shot = 26 outs (minus a few)...

if you bet and the two guys calls, you need 1/3 chance of winning and i'm pretty sure you have that....

is that correct??

[Vee Quiva]

Let's use an actual example:
SB (5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
BB (A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
MP1 (9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
MP2 (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
Hero (K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])


Make the flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
According to the Card Player odds calculator my %equity in the pot is 28.6%. The largest is the flush draw at 36.7%. The straight draw has 24%. This is after the flop.

If the turn is a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] my equity jumps to 55.3%

I have no idea how to run hand ranges or calling ranges in an example like this. But I think this is a good example of the types of hands that these players would stay in with preflop and after a flop bet.

did you input the cards properly?? cause the flop guy shouldn't have that equity needing two cards. i think you may have put it in wrong.

i will relook at it, but i think it needs to be fixed (i could be wrong too though).

flop had 76 of clubs... so i think we need to change it.

[Vee Quiva]

I changed the actual hand example flop. Please ignore the initial post flop (too late to edit).

So if the hand was played face up and checked to you on the button, do you still bet according to the Theory Of Poker?

If the flush draw bets first, do you raise?

[Xhad]

Schooling is not the same thing as what you're talking about. Schooling is when a made hand goes from being a favorite shorthanded to being an underdog (as in winning less than its share) in a multiway pot because there are so many ways for it to lose. A good example would be 22, it's a favorite against most non-pairs heads up but put it against 3 non-pairs that don't share cards and it's less (against AKo, QJo, and T9o it's only 22% or so to win even though it's a slight favorite against each hand individually)

About not raising the favorite: one thing to realize is that any time you don't bet or raise the best hand, you are giving up EV on that round. So the question is, is it worth it to push an equity edge on an earlier round if that edge mitigates mistakes on later rounds?

Actually even that statement isn't entirely accurate. You make money when called as the favorite, even if your opponents are correct to call. However, there is a specific situation where you can consider not raising:

-Your equity edge is small
-Your opponents call too much
-Raising may bloat the pot to the point where you are forced to call on the next street, where not raising would allow you to fold your weaker hands

In this circumstance you can limp and then make up for it by folding as an underdog if you hit a mostly unfavorable flop.

With all the above in mind, don't talk yourself out of raising big pairs. The first requirement, that your edge be small, is not met. Generally the requirement about making you more likely to call isn't met either because PPs don't tend to flop draws.

However, you can do this preflop with big offsuit cards (other than AKo and AQo, again your edge is just too much to give up). Your edge is usually like 2% so you're not giving up much by just calling so you can fold a gutshot draw.

On the flop, in your example it could be correct to not raise. But notice I just said don't raise, not don't bet. A free card won't make a difference for open-straights and four-flushes. It will make a difference if someone has the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or small pocket pairs, or other random cards that can catch a backdoor straight. Even though you can't protect your hand from some hands, you can protect it from enough hands that betting is necessary.

As far as whether to raise, depends on where the bet comes from. If it comes from my right I raise since certain hands like a gutshot are now getting correct odds to call if I just call. If UTG bets then I call hoping for a safe turn planning to raise there.

Another note: this concept is not a reason not to raise a set on a two-flush board (there might be other reasons, just this isn't it. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). You're calling the turn no matter what it is so you might as well get the money in as a favorite.

[Vee Quiva]

Excellent post.

[ QUOTE ]
About not raising the favorite: one thing to realize is that any time you don't bet or raise the best hand, you are giving up EV on that round

[/ QUOTE ]
I am ahead if the hand ends right now, but I am not the favorite. The flush draw is the favorite. The straight draw is practically even with me. Does this change your answer?

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent post.

[ QUOTE ]
About not raising the favorite: one thing to realize is that any time you don't bet or raise the best hand, you are giving up EV on that round

[/ QUOTE ]
I am ahead if the hand ends right now, but I am not the favorite. The flush draw is the favorite. The straight draw is practically even with me. Does this change your answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't change my answer about not betting (in a real game situation), because you still have enough of a lead against certain hands to want your hand to be protected. This is because you can't be sure that a flush and straight draw are both out against you, but there is probably someone with at least a T, a club, an A, or a small PP. You are right that if these draws are both out against you then you aren't really the favorite. On the other hand, you're more likely against one or the other, along with some weaker hands that may be correct to call for one bet but not two. So there are arguments for both calling and raising. In your specific example you're probably better off not raising, but you'll rarely know your opponent's cards that surely.

EDIT: One thing about the above quote, I should have made it clear that by "best hand" I meant "favorite" and not "highest ranking hand".

In HPFAP21 (I think,) Sklansky wrote a section on loose-passive game strategy. Good advice shown here about not raising pre-flop with small EV cards (he even suggests potentially folding hands like AJ that don’t play well multi-way.) This makes the pot size smaller and makes loose calling closer to being incorrect. Conversely, raising with good drawing hands in late position is always fun (like pocket pairs, suited connectors, Axs.) This way, you’re getting paid a lot when you hit your draw, and calling players can’t beat you if you make your hand. He also said that you may want to smooth call good hands on the flop and wait for the turn to show aggression. The idea is that you probably won’t be able to shut out loose callers on the flop, but you may be able to shut them out on the turn so that they won’t suck out a river card against you. Again, keeping the pot size small makes their calling one or two BB’s on the turn incorrect or closer to incorrect.

Another thing. Bluffing obviously doesn’t work. You know he is going to call anyways. So yes, most of your profit will come from value betting.

Having said that, if the game is terribly loose-passive and I can’t tell if callers have draws or second pairs, I sometimes check down the river if any remotely scary card comes (completes a gutshot, pairs the board, maybe even runner-runner flush cards, etc.) Don’t overvalue top pair/top kicker against these types of opponents.

ScottieK