Iraqi Elections..... is the insurgency weaker?

[Stu Pidasso]

It was a relatively peaceful election day in Iraq. Even more peaceful than the last elections(I'm sure Grey and Elliot are quite upset right now). Is this an indication the insurgency is weakening?

Stu

[Dynasty]

The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while. They used to be able to threaten important targets like Iraq's oil production infrastructure. Now, they often seem to select targets which have little military or economic significance.

The elections are a big political blow to their efforts. If the citizens and political leaders of Iraq's different cultural groups are able to form and maintain a working government, the game is won. All that's left is for the new Iraqi government to complete building a military which can defend the country itself.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
If the citizens and political leaders of Iraq's different cultural groups are able to form and maintain a working government, the game is won.

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Sustaining democratic regimes has been very difficult historically for developing countries. This fact is largely underappreciated in America because of our relatively unique experience with democratic rule. Moreover, Iraq possesses just about every characteristic that has been identified to make democracy especially unlikely to take permanent root.

An escalation of conflict leading to a partition of the country is much more likely than a unified democracy emerging in the long term.

[Cyrus]

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The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while.

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CNN Report :

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The U.S. military reported that a roadside bomb Saturday killed five U.S. soldiers near Ramadi, west of Baghdad in Anbar province.
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The soldiers were assigned to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward).
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In another incident, a homemade bomb killed one U.S. Marine on Saturday in Saqlawiya, northwest of Falluja, the U.S. military said.
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The U.S. death toll in the Iraq war now stands at 1,980.

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[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while.

[/ QUOTE ] CNN report :

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Three U.S. soldiers with Task Force Liberty were killed and one was wounded Wednesday night when their combat patrol struck a roadside bomb near the Iraqi city of Balad, the military said. A suicide car bomb killed a Marine from the 2nd Expeditionary Force Wednesday in Karabila, which is in Anbar province near the Syrian border. The deaths brought to 1,985 the number of U.S. troops who have died in Iraq.

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Meanwhile, back at the White House Ranch, the president dismisses the adverse political climate :

CNN report:
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It's all "background noise, chatter, speculation and opining."

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[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while.

[/ QUOTE ]

CNN report :


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October 24, 2005
Four American contractors were killed in an attack north of Baghdad on September 20, the U.S. military said Sunday. Another two Americans were injured in the attack near Duluiya, said a spokesman for Task Force Liberty, 42nd Infantry Division. U.S. contractor KBR, a subsidiary of Halliburton Co., said three of its employees were killed that day, said Halliburton spokeswoman Cathy Mann.

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...But please stay tuned for some happy news about the Iraqi referendum. "Mission Accomplished!"

[MMMMMM]

Cyrus, Dynasty made the statement that "The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while"

Your response was to cite an incident of insurgent attacks. Now you have bumped the thread for the sole purpose of citing another such incident. Such citings do nothing to support or diminish Dynasty's claim, or to answer Stu's question; they are not comparative analysis, and only comparative analysis (even if cursory) can provide any rebuttal or support of such a claim--as you well know.

Less posturing and more intellectual honesty, please.

[nicky g]

"The insurgency has been getting steadily weaker in a military sense for quite a while. They used to be able to threaten important targets like Iraq's oil production infrastructure. Now, they often seem to select targets which have little military or economic significance."


On Sunday:
Blast Halts North Iraq oil exports

I think you underestimate the extent to which we don't hear about this stuff as much as we used to. Or have you seen statistics showing that attacks on oil infrastructure, US troops etc, have fallen? I'd be interested to see them.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this an indication the insurgency is weakening?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way to tell. The insurgency looked quite strong in the weaks before the election. Maybe they wanted to launch attacks and were foiled, maybe they thought it would be counterproductive to attack polling places. Who knows?

[Cyrus]

I am guessing that the American presence in Iraq is getting more and more popular by each passing day. And the elections should be interpreted as an affirmation of the Iraqi people's gratitude for the United States saving them from Weapons of Mass Destruction.

...No, scratch that, saving them from destitution and chaos.

...Hmmm, no, better make that saving them from Osama bin Laden.

...Wait, scratch that too. Saving them from religious fanatics and civil war.

...Wait, ooops. Goddamn it.