Live Main Event Super Satellites

[Doylestown]

In 2004 I took 4 swings at the Borgata WPT Main Event via multi table supersatellite. They were running the $200 rebuys that year. In each of the 4 events I was within a table or two of getting my seat and failed, essentially bubbling all 4 times. They were all large fields ranging from several hundred to nearly 600 players on my final try. The end result was I "dumped" nearly $3500 trying to win a 10K seat. After my final attempt I ran into a player that I had played against in a couple of the supers who also burned alot of $ trying for the seat. He said "I would've been better off just buying into the damn event". That statement hit home and since that day I haven't attempted another super for entry into a main event.

I've been wrestling with a desire to play some main events and have come really close to just plunking down the 10K to do so but in the end I realize it's just too big a % of bankroll to take what's essentially a random shot. This has again led me back to thinking about giving supers another try, but I am less than sure that this a +EV move.

I normally buy right into a handful of the sub events when they come to AC and wonder if the cash I would need to dedicate to another round of supers would be better spent buying into some additional $1000-$2500 events as AC is finally hosting these types on a more regular basis now.

So I suppose the question is would one be better off taking a "fictional $2500" and playing a $1500 and $1000 event or dedicating that cash to some supers? Is there any way to put math to this question?

Please discuss.