The lottery. The odds.

Felipe · #1 07-07-2005, 09:33 PM

I've been thinking about this over and over for weeks now. I can't seem to find any good enough reason not to play the lottery (I mean hypothetically, because I don't care, cause I'm pretty confident I won't win. I'll bet on it!)

Since playing the lottery is -EV, people shouldn't play. But they still do. That's why there is millions of dollars of prize money to be granted to the the lucky winners.

Someone's thinking might go something like this:
"Even if I only play the lottery once a week, its only $52 a year. I might get lucky. Even if I play for 50 years, that's just $2600. I might win, which will cover all of my expenses/losses (tickets)"

"Why not play? I might get lucky? Somebody always wins, right? Why can't it be me? Its just as probable to be me as it is to be Joan Doe down the street."

So I'm thinking, is "it worth playing" the lottery? I know the odds are against winning. For each dollar one invests, mathematically and theoretically speaking, one would expect to win, say, 97cents. But heck! They might just get lucky!

Any thoughts?

Felipe
I'm posting this at other forums too.

WackityWhiz · #2 07-07-2005, 09:37 PM

Joan Doe is sexy

Vince Young · #3 07-07-2005, 09:38 PM

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I can't seem to find any good enough reason not to play the lottery.

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I won't win.

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playing the lottery is -EV

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the odds are against winning.

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For each dollar one invests, mathematically and theoretically speaking, one would expect to win, say, 97cents.

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Macdaddy Warsaw · #4 07-07-2005, 09:43 PM

I like longshots and gambles too. I play the lottery when it gets big and occassionally buy a scratch off. I know it's not in my best interest to do so, but it's enjoyable to think about all the crap I'd buy.

That said, psychologically speaking, people who lose a limb and people who win the lottery both have been found to return to their original state of happiness after a given time. This means that, if you're unhappy now, winning the lottery won't make you any happier after 6 months.

But yeah, I like a longshot.

stanky · #5 07-07-2005, 09:44 PM

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I'm posting this at other forums too.

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THANK GOD. I was worried only OOT would experience the great thinker that is known as Felipe, but don't stop here spread your word until it reaches the outer corners of the world. Not doing so would be a great disservice to mankind.

YourFoxyGrandma · #6 07-07-2005, 09:49 PM

The only reason to play is variance.

EDIT: Then again, it's pretty fun. Who here doesn't like to gamble?

TStoneMBD · #7 07-07-2005, 09:51 PM

i think that its important for most people who live mundane lives to exercise -ev gambles that have small effects on their long term networth because everyone needs to hope for something. most people wake up every day for their entire lives to make $15/hr and have absolutely no shot at ever becoming rich. most people dream of making a million dollars but many people will never put themselves in a situation to have a shot at it. it is hard to dream about becoming rich when you know that its not possible. playing the lottery at least makes it remotely possible for this dream to come true for an individual and allows them to dream which probably improves the quality of their life.

fortunately as poker players, we can dream about becoming rich because we are in a position where it is very possible that living rich lives will happen to us. we are in a field where things happen and that is something that many people envy.

YourFoxyGrandma · #8 07-07-2005, 09:54 PM

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we are in a field where things happen and that is something that many people envy.

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Haha. Field.

Justin A · #9 07-07-2005, 10:02 PM

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I know the odds are against winning. For each dollar one invests, mathematically and theoretically speaking, one would expect to win, say, 97cents.

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I'm pretty sure it's closer to 50 cents.

stabn · #10 07-07-2005, 10:07 PM

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I know the odds are against winning. For each dollar one invests, mathematically and theoretically speaking, one would expect to win, say, 97cents.

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I'm pretty sure it's closer to 50 cents.

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It really depends on the size of the jackpot doesn't it? Absolute odds are pretty sick but you do have to look at pot odds (including taxes and that bullshit about not giving you the full amount for taking it lump sum).