Crap

J. Stew · #1 12-16-2005, 04:25 PM

I screwed the river I think. Villain is 32/11 after 28 hands, that's all I got, he doesnt seem crazy, but only 28 hands ya know. Pf's a little loose but I'm at a tight-arse table so I there's a decent chance I can steal.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero folds.

Shouldn't be betting the river if I'm not calling a raise here right?

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

#2 12-16-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't be betting the river if I'm not calling a raise here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

JoshuaD · #3 12-17-2005, 04:31 AM

Bet/call > check/call > bet/fold > check/fold.

IMO.

Alot of hands pay off this river bet, so you really want to bet, and QT will raise this river, along w/ the occasional bluff.

pokergrader · #4 12-17-2005, 06:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/call > check/call > bet/fold > check/fold.

IMO.

Alot of hands pay off this river bet, so you really want to bet, and QT will raise this river, along w/ the occasional bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like bet/fold more than bet/call. Unless you are taking misclicks into account, this looks like KJ+,TT+, all hands which hero is losing to.

And this hand is one I don't mind not taking to showdown. A raise here from a solid villian shows us that we are good less than 10% of the time, and it is an easy fold.

Nice hand.

JoshuaD · #5 12-17-2005, 06:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
And this hand is one I don't mind not taking to showdown. A raise here from a solid villian shows us that we are good less than 10% of the time, and it is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't know he's a solid villian.

With a stronger read I agree with you, but against this unknownish opponent I don't want to miss value by not betting (we get alot of value) and I want to see what he has if he C/R's.

pokergrader · #6 12-17-2005, 07:29 AM

I will certainly concede your last point, there is a lot of value here in just seeing what hand he is playing.

However, I don't think calling this raise is +EV for $$$. I agree about the bet, but is hero really good here 1 out of 10 times? I'm not so sure.

Then again, PokerStove gives his hand 8.7% equity against (TT+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)... so it is close. I certainly don't think it would be a major mistake either way.

MicroBob · #7 12-17-2005, 07:40 AM

for now I think we assume that he's a mostly 'reasonable' player.
So I'm for bet/fold on the river.

You definitely have value on his range of calling hands. Many players just won't be laying-down A5 here. Some guys will refuse to lay-down even a K5-ish hand here.

I think it's safe to lay down to the raise here. I don't see him (read being 'mostly reasonable' for now) raising with air in this spot.

Just look at it more simply.
You took your stab at it on a scary board hoping he'll call-down with less...he's telling you he's got more than that...for this one i'll believe him.
Is that too weak? I just don't see calling-down here being successful often enough.

(these, and worse, were call-downs that I would routinely make before because there's always 'that chance' they have nothing...but am learning to not do that so much..and I think this is one of those times)