Folding ATo against a LAG

Spicymoose · #1 10-09-2005, 03:36 PM

Villain is around 30/15/2, and we have been fighting each other a lot. He usually wins. I feel I could potentially be ahead here, as he was often making stupid agro plays, but am I really going to pay 2.5 BB to win 5.5 BB occasionally?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 3.66 BB

#2 10-09-2005, 03:39 PM

no way am i folding on this flop. i'd probably get to SD UI against the opponent you described. what do you think his range is here? you're likely ahead. if behind, drawing to 6 outs usually, sometimes 3, sometimes dead but that's poker. you can't fold this flop.

Spicymoose · #3 10-09-2005, 03:45 PM

A7s+, A9+, 66+, K9s+, KT+, QJs? I am behind by most of these, crused by a few, have a few outs against some, and will chop often with a few that I am currently ahead of. Do I really win more than 1 in 3 here? Is my range of hands that off?

Victor · #4 10-09-2005, 04:20 PM

i call the flop. i just dont fold for 1 bet on the flop against a lag.

if he is super laggy i am calling down but usually i am folding the turn.

Spicymoose · #5 10-09-2005, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i call the flop. i just dont fold for 1 bet on the flop against a lag.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this line. Assuming you continue only when you hit one of your 6 outs, you are continuing 12% of the time. He is LAG, and will almost never check the turn. That means 88% of the time we are losing 1 SB. Out of the times you do hit your out, you will continue to the river, and pay 2 BB (unless you propose raising, but I don't think this is wise), to win 6 BB. That means you have to be ahead 1 out every 4 times (we won't even talk about the fairly often case of chopping) to have neutral EV. If you do hit your A or T on the turn (12% of the time) you need an EV high enough to counter the times not hitting (-1 SB). I just don't think this is the case here.

I hope I am making any sense here...

sy_or_bust · #6 10-09-2005, 04:51 PM

It's a metagame call.

Spicymoose · #7 10-09-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's a metagame call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes a bit of sense. I never really thought about doing any meta game stuff, but maybe its time to start.

Can you explain this a bit please? You are making a slightly -EV flop call so that he thinks you call down more, and won't lead into you as much with garbage? Are there other factors?