Finding out why I'm hemmoraging chips

[damaniac]

So if we're c/cing the whole way, is there any value in bet/folding the river?

[W. Deranged]

Probably not. AK is almost certainly more likely to bluff on this river when checked to than it is to call when bet into, in my opinion. Letting this river get checked through is really not that bad, and we really would like to see a showdown here.

[Easystreet]

[ QUOTE ]

Since we'll be good often enough to continue,

[/ QUOTE ]

If we assume the following, villain will cap pf with the following hands AA, KK, QQ and AKs how do we do the math to work out how likely we are to win this hand, this means folding if an A or K appear on turn or river. I suppose one would have to consider that on very rare occassions one will spike a J on the turn or river too.

[Easystreet]

I've just realised this is 6 handed, so I guess we can include AK as well as AKs for villains pf capping range.

[lil']

Probably not. AK is almost certainly more likely to bluff on this river when checked to than it is to call when bet into, in my opinion.

That's not true.

Letting this river get checked through is really not that bad,

With the Q falling on the river, that's true.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably not. AK is almost certainly more likely to bluff on this river when checked to than it is to call when bet into, in my opinion.

That's not true.



[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to get some "votes" on this because it has been my experience that players bet AK on the river way, way too much, and I feel there is more value in trying to exploit that mistake than the other (calling too much with it). Though I really don't know.

[cmwck]

Thanks for the replies. The reason I bet the flop was to prevent giving AK a free card, but villain is checking behind on the flop almost never, so there's no danger in giving a free card anyway.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably not. AK is almost certainly more likely to bluff on this river when checked to than it is to call when bet into, in my opinion.

That's not true.


[/ QUOTE ]

So, would you bet/fold the river then?