This hand still bugs me. $500 max NL

[SpeakEasy]

Live $500 max buy-in NLHE, $2/$5 blinds. I’ve been playing for about 2 hours, have about $750. Full table of 10. With a couple exceptions, table is playing somewhat loose pre-flop, tight when the cards hit. In the entire time, no one has “mixed it up” and really started shoving chips in; most hands are fairly standard, someone taking it down before the river with decent sized bets. BB is playing standard for this table, generally tight after the flop and selectively aggressive, and he has about $700.

I have 33 in middle position, two off the button. Two limpers before me, I limp. 2 more limpers, then BB raises to $15. Limpers call, I call, everyone calls. 6 players, pot is $90.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB checks. BB bets $25. 2 fold. I raise to $125. 2 more fold. BB goes all in. Heads-up, pot is about $900, about $660 to call.

What’s my move?

[tbach24]

Fold.

[RiverFenix]

You cant expect him to have Ah5h, 44, or 5h6h because of the 5x BB raise.
JJ-AA is most likely, with one of them being a heart.
Unless for some reason you think he has AhKh its a call.
With AhAx you are favored to win about 20% of the time and it only gets better as his overpair goes down in value

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is playing standard for this table, generally tight after the flop and selectively aggressive

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
You cant expect him to have Ah5h, 44, or 5h6h because of the 5x BB raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

He raised only to $15 which is 3x the BB, and thus easily for a tough tricky player could have A5s, 65s or 44 hoping to trap another player if he flops a monster, or AKs manipulating the pot so that he can bet enough with TPTK to get others to fold on the flop, but not creating a pot so large that he will feel compelled to bet with no help on the flop into a crowd having worst position.

What he probably doesn't have is AA-JJ, especially AA/KK, as he should have made a larger 5-6x raise so as not to play such a hand mutiway out of position, coupled with the fact that he is 'selectively aggressive' and thus probably would not reraise allin here with AA/KK if he did have it fearing a made flush with that many callers behind. The only hand you want him to have is AKo with a flush draw and being generally tight and selectively aggressive as you read him should again not make this play with that hand, preferring to check/call only thus making it an unlikely holding for him.

FOLD

[SpeakEasy]

I folded. He later confirmed only that he did not have a straight flush on the flop; he didn’t disclose what he actually had.

My analysis was much like BluffThis explained above. After a good think, my estimates were:

1. 65% chance he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

2. 25% chance he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], kicker non-heart.

3. 10% chance he had an overpair with no heart, from AA down to possibly 99. In this case, his all-in bet would have been designed to push me off what he assumed to be a hand holding one large heart. However, this could have been accomplished with a smaller raise.

Why did I assign such a large probability to a made Ace-high flush? Primarily because his all-in re-raise seemed to confirm that his modest bet on the flop looked to be designed to induce exactly the size of bet that I made. My raise was made with the assumption that he had an overpair and was testing the waters with $25, possibly with a large heart (#2 below). I just didn’t see him moving all-in without the made flush, given past play at this table. I’d watched him previously fold on the flop when it appeared he was behind, and bet when he was ahead. It occurred to me that this is how I would likely play the hand if I had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

The pre-flop raise to $15 (3xBB) didn’t tell me much more than he wanted to build the pot. He knew that all 5 limpers would call this bet, and its consistent with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and something like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], making all of the scenarios above a possibility.

This hand still bugs me because he may have pushed me off the best hand -- I'd be very happy to call if I knew I was ahead. Damn, I wish there were hole-cams on hands like this.

[Huskiez]

SpeakEasy,

[ QUOTE ]
1. 65% chance he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

2. 25% chance he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], kicker non-heart.

3. 10% chance he had an overpair with no heart, from AA down to possibly 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

On this flop:
Chance you win with 33 v AhKh: 33%
Chance you win with 33 v AhKc: 63%
Chance you win with 33 v TcTs: 84%

Given your estimates, your pot equity is .33 x .65 + .63 x .25 + .84 x .10 = .2145 + .1575 + .084 = .456.

If these are your estimates, then this is a very easy call.

[IndianOcean]

I was just going to say i would CALL

but thanks for breaking it down for us Husky.

This is what I use:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds...ldem/index.php

[SpeakEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
SpeakEasy,

[ QUOTE ]
1. 65% chance he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

2. 25% chance he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], kicker non-heart.

3. 10% chance he had an overpair with no heart, from AA down to possibly 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

On this flop:
Chance you win with 33 v AhKh: 33%
Chance you win with 33 v AhKc: 63%
Chance you win with 33 v TcTs: 84%

Given your estimates, your pot equity is .33 x .65 + .63 x .25 + .84 x .10 = .2145 + .1575 + .084 = .456.

If these are your estimates, then this is a very easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Help me out with the math here, Huskie. Are your calculations that my pot equity is 45%? And this is a call, when I'm behind? Are you comparing the price of the call to the size of the pot? I just want to understand what you're saying.

Also, how do you get to 33% chance of winning if he has the made Ace-high flush. I count 7 outs, or runner-runner pair on the turn-river. This is a critical assumption in your math.

[Gainsay]

Huskie's numbers are correct. You can get them from running any hand simulator, or you can just approximate them by drawing to 7 outs and then 10 outs. Remember to take into account that the 2 big hearts aren't in the deck.

I'm amazed so many people told you to fold, this is an easy call. I think your breakdown of what hands your opponent might have is too pessimistic, and even given that breakdown calling is +EV.

[radioheadfan]

Worst case scenario....he flopped the A high flush. The board can still pair to win it for you.

Mostly likely has has an overpair with a big heart in it. You are a favorite even if he has A/Ah leaving him a whopping 14 outs twice. It's gambling, but the pot odds (you are getting better than 1-1) make this a call.

If he has KK or QQ with a heart, he only has 11 outs twice, making you a more comfortable favorite.

If you are really risk averse, fold and wait for a K73 rainbow flop.