What is the norm for "Won $ At SD"???

[Bytestream]

For the first 30k hands (I know this is a "small sample") in PT, I have a Won$AtSD of 51.19%

For the next 7k hands, I have only won at SD a paultry 46.3%. This run started last Sunday, and I have been (or at least felt) that I have been dealt an abnormal amount of bad beats. It seems that if there is a river card that can beat me, it hits. Im down over 150BB. I know swings of this nature are natural and to be expected.

To confirm whether this is just a bad run or a fundamental change in my game (or that I was just lucky previously) I've been pouring over stats and replaying hands. This stat seemed the most significant, and was just wondering if is a good indicator of a bad run. Its hard to believe that I am still playing good while bleeding away $1000.

Also, my stats with AK for these 7k hands are substantially lower then for the first 30k hands:

AKs 22 times, 36% win, down $137
AKo 60 times, 52% win, down $16
AQs 22 times, 64% win, up $143 ( too good to be true? )
AQo 67 times, 45% win, down $110


If I assume that the normal showdown win is 51% (equal to my previous results) then I should have won about 5% more hands on the river. PT says I went to showdown about 568 times during these 7k hands. So I should have won about 30 more pots. If these pots averaged 6BB each (I think thats a low estimate) then that would put me closer to my previous winrate and this is just a hellish run and things will feel better when its over...

However, thats assuming one should be winning at least 51% of showdowns over the long haul, is that accurate? What do some of you guys with a couple hundred thou hands have for a win%? Also what is you winrate for AKs, AKo, AQo if you dont mind me asking?

Edit:

Also, other then just getting clobbered by the deck, what factors can cause such a deviation in the Win$SD stat? I would assume that tighting up a bit would increase the percentage (but not nessecarily win more $$) and that loosing up and calling down too much, would then make the percentage decrease... My VP$IP for both sets of figures is remarkably the same, 21%.

My when folds hands stats are almost exactly the same, except for on the flop which was 9.19% for the first 30k hands and now down to 6.51% for the last 7k hands.

I figure this could either be a leak that I've developed, paying more bets on the flop then I used to? Or it could just be an normal fluctuation for a sample this size?

What is the flop fold percent for some of you guys?

[Bytestream]

any help?

[DocMartin]

I think the typical "won$ at SD" is between 50-55 but I have seen several posts a little lower with a positive win rate. If it is too high you arent seeing enough showdowns and if it is too low you are seeing too many.

[Bob T.]

Somewhere a little over 50.

People that are very very good hand readers can get a little bit higher. If you are much below that, you probably are calling too often, or bluffing too often. If you are higher, you probably are either not bluffing often enough, or not making enough crying calls.

[DeeJ]

my W$SD is at 51% and I'm getting 2BB/100 with the heaviest rake @ 5/10.

With reads I can throw away at the river more. I think you could push this up a few %. Yeah, 50-55% is ok.