Well now I just feel silly

[manpower]

No big reads really, opponent's in question seems like pretty standard party 1/2 players, maybe a little more loose passive than normal.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds.

I bet here with the intention of check calling the river if he calls.

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

So now I've hit and attempt to go for a check raise.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows As Td (two pair, aces and tens).
Button shows Qh Jd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.25 BB. </font>


Now here's the problem, the more I think about it, the more I feel that in this game this is a bad play (probably not in a more agg setting). I think that the chance he'll bet when checked to is &lt; 50% and thus a poor play. I'll try something like this against a pretty aggro player more often, but I think against a pretty normal party 1/2 player this isn't going to be +EV. Comments?

What about my line on the turn? I think a few things in this hand are questionable.

[greenage]

Yea, I don’t see the Button betting given that all he did was call throughout the entire hand.

On the Turn the BB could be setting you up for a check-raise, but I would still bet, particularly given your description of the table.

[naphand]

I think flop raise is good, esp. given your read on BB. You could be ahead here, but could easily be behind to a J, esp. with Button calling along.

I think if you bet the Turn it is with the expectation that people will fold, but I do not think Button is folding, having called 2 cold on the flop. So take the free card on the Turn and call a bet on the River unimproved. Why? because if BB is the aggro player you read him to be he may well take a shot at you if you check the Turn, and Button probably calls if he has any part of the flop (which he must) but with a weak J he may be too timid to bet it (on the Turn). Also, if BB is planning a Turn CR, you save 2 bets.

There are times to bet the Turn with 2nd-pair, but I don't think this is one (against 2 players and Button calling 2 cold).

BET THE RIVER. Don't get clever. If Button has a J there is no way he bets here unless he has you beat (AJ). If you had checked the Turn, then he quite likely bets you, but as you chose the former you absolutely must bet this River.

This hand looks a bit confused.

[ctv1116]

Hmm, the guy cold calls the flop and calls the turn. He must be dying to bluff you on the river, isn't he? He has shown no aggression the entire hand, the likelihood of him showing it on the river is low, at least less than the 50% required for the checkraise.

(Sorry if I sound too harsh. But when the title of the thread is "Well now I just feel silly", you sound like you want to be yelled at.)