Party 15/30 BR - How much is enough?

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That is you start with 300 BB and let your BR grow, never withdrawl. If you do this you are probably pretty safe starting with 300 BB. That is because when you hit the eventual 300 BB losing streak, you likely will have much more than 300 BB.

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<---snip discussion of effect of expenses on bankroll--->

I don' think we really disagree about anything. Obviously if expenses are considered, BR requirements go up. That was the point of the sentence that you snipped from my OP, that I have added back in bold.

Perhaps I could have been more clear that "never withdrawl" meant that all expenses such as taxes and living expenses would be paid from another source. In fact, later in the OP, I suggested a 1000 BB BR for the Party 15/30.

Paul

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I guess the fact that I added expenses into my post without specifically refuting your post confused things.

To have a 1% chance of busting without considering expenses, our hypothetical pro would still need 400 big bets and close to 600 for a .1% chance--these formulas take the fact that you're often going to win before you run poorly into account.

The 5% number is actually below 300 bets if you don't account for expenses, but, like I've said earlier in the thread, I don't think 5% is a reasonable risk of ruin. Furthermore, I don't think most people spouting off "300 Big Bets is all you need" understand that 1 in 20 people with the respectable stats we used here would go broke on such a roll.

In my first reply, I pointed out that 300 bets is probably never a meaningful threshold in the real world. People who aren't playing for a living need less, particularly if they're willing to drop down in stakes if they run poorly or supplement their "bankroll" with income. People who do play for a living need substantially more if they're unwilling to drop down, and the amount they need as a combination of "bankroll" and "expense money" is a function of WR, SD, hands per month and monthly expenses and can be calculated.

Finally, the oral tradition "you need 6 months expenses + 300 BB" is sort of stupid when we're talking about an online game since 6 months used to be how long it took a B+M pro--assumed to win at a much higher rate with much lower variance than the typical Party 15 player--to play about 30,000 hands, after which such a player was expected to be a winner an overwhelming majority of the time.

An online player will play more than 30,000 hands in a month . He doesn't need a large bankroll because of concerns about riding out 6 months where he doesn't win at the expected rate. He needs a large bankroll because he's playing with a lower win rate and higher variance; he's concerned about going broke in the first month or two.

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