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#1
12-23-2005, 06:30 PM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
At any given point your expectation is negative, yes (assuming a house edge)
However, due to variance there should be times when you are up. Quit during one of those times and you've made money. :-) 
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#2
12-23-2005, 06:49 PM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
just think about this. if it takes 1,000,000 times to win you still are positive, if it takes infinity times you still are positive. Its just a matter of how long it takes till you win. If you have infinity time to play, infinity money to play with, and no max bet you will have to win at some point at which point you are positive and that can be repeated.
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#3
12-24-2005, 02:25 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
[ QUOTE ]
If you have infinity time to play, infinity money to play with, and no max bet you will have to win at some point at which point you are positive and that can be repeated. [/ QUOTE ] Incorrect. There is always the chance that you lose from the beginning.
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#4
12-24-2005, 02:33 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
no there isnt, because with infinity tries you WILL win at some point. while it doesnt matter because its not physically possible, in theory you will win. You will not win with 1,000,000 tries, but infinity, yes.
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#5
12-24-2005, 02:46 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
The problem with your debate is that the points you're now arguing have absolutely no substance.
"You WILL win at some point." Well...why? Can you prove it? "Not necessarily." Can you prove it? Someone who knows the foundation of these arguments is going to step in and say "you guys are dumb, it's ____ because of ____." I don't know what the second blank is, so I can only ask you guys to fill it in.
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#7
12-24-2005, 02:50 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
i agree that there is a one in a huge number chance that you will lose every time and i know that this system cannot work, but with infinity tries you will win, that or I do not understand the concept of infinity, which is quite possible.
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#8
12-24-2005, 03:00 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
The sum of a series of -EV wagers will never be positive no matter how you sequence them. It is really silly to think that the order in which you make your bets will make you a winner. If you took every wager you made in a Martingale system and ordered them from largest to smallest and wagered them in that order would you still be winning?
Let's say you had an infinite bankroll. Each time you want to win a $1. You win $1 then repeat. Even if you had an infinite bankroll you will be making wagers lager than all the amount you have won more often then you will be up money. Saying that you will be up at one point and thus it is a winning system is silly. Even with infinite bankroll and infinite tries you could never be up. The same argument could be said about any -EV game. If I play blackjack for an evening I am often times up at some point. Does this mean if I quit once I get up I have found a way to beat blackjack?
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#9
12-24-2005, 02:42 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
What if you used the martingale system on both red and black? Then every time the wheel stops your winning one bet.
Wouldnt you? fwiw, it was this type of EV thinking for roulette that started my obsession for poker.
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#10
12-24-2005, 02:45 AM
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Re: Martingale for SNGs
ive never heard of that before, that could be interesting.
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