Milking a set for the super #1 ev.

[EnderW27]

This is a small stakes game but I'm putting it here because I really want to talk theory. I don't know if I played this optimally.

Full Tilt Poker Game #341018633: Table Whispering Sands - $3/$6 - Limit Hold'em - 19:12:13 ET - 2005/12/17
hello2kings posts the small blind of $1.50
Floater37 posts the big blind of $3
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BeakerBoy [6h 6c]
englihsflavor calls $3
kedwards calls $3
perm22 folds
momofbaboo folds
BeakerBoy calls $3
silentbill folds
hello2kings calls $1.50
Floater37 checks
*** FLOP *** [Qh 4c 6s]
hello2kings bets $3
Floater37 folds
englihsflavor calls $3
kedwards calls $3
BeakerBoy raises to $6
hello2kings calls $3
englihsflavor raises to $9

This is where I want to end the play by play. The cards that come after don't matter. I won the hand. Whoopee.

Here's the question. Someone just limp reraised me and I'm certain I still have the best hand.
Should I cap?

If I cap the other two still in the hand will have to call two bets cold. They might suddenly wise up and fold, which really hurts me. But more importantly is this: capping puts me in the dominant position which means there's a good chance the rest of the table will roll over and show their bellies the rest of the hand.

That's exactly what happened. I thought for a few seconds and capped. Two called, one folded. Checked to me on the turn, I bet. Checked to me on the river, I bet.

So what if I don't cap? Do you think the limp re-raiser bets out on the turn still thinking he has the best hand? I think this is a strong possibility. Plus there's still an extra small bet in from the 4th player (the one who did fold to two SB but wouldn't have for one).

But now what? Raise and have the others call two bets cold? This might happen. Or two might fold and I get one in for 2BB.

I'm trying to figure out, in general, what the best plan is. Cap the flop means 1BB per person the rest of the way down. Call the 3 bet means the possibility of 2BB per person but there's obviously a greater liklihood of the early players folding to 2BB.

So what do you all think?

[ohnonotthat]

Here's my fast answer (heading out to meet friends) - I'll think it thru and add to it tho I doubt I'll change my mind.

There is no 2-flush meaning no "big" (12 or 15 out) draw and almost no legitimate draw of any kind (7-5 ?) to this flop. If you cap it you're doing three things that all both bad.

1. you are all announcing middle/bottom set - what else can a reasonable player have here ?

- Top set ? . . . You limped with QQ from the cutoff ? - Highly unlikely.

- AQ ? . . . Same as above, albeit to a slightly lessor extent, but who limps with AQ from the CO after two limp in front ?

- KQ ? . . . Not a hand you ought to cap with here (though some might)

- QJ, QT ? . . . I think not.

- A6, A4 ? . . . Maybe to try for a check-through on the turn but very unlikely.

- 75 ? . . . Possible but first you had to have played it then you have to cap with it here - that's alot of "ifs".

2. You are, as you noted, offering a cheap exit to one (and possibly two) opponents that are all but drawing dead.

3. You are stopping the limp/3-bettor from firing at the turn - something you don't have any reason to want ? This is the least of the three problems but it does make it a hat trick.

- Call, don't cap.

And while you said you wanted to end the discussion here, I suggest you think before auto-raising the turn (assuming you didn't cap here); there is a good case for waiting until the river before lowering the boom.

*

I have never played at Full Tilt but I am assuming your opponents were lucid; most (yeah, most) 3-6'ers are. Had this been Party 1-2 or the like my advice would be load, lock, fire and grin; that bunch seldom makes any effort to think about what you might have. "How much to me, dealer" is what this type says in cardrooms; online their favorite choice of the pre-select buttons is "check-call". They're often indifferent to whether they're calling 1 bet or 2 (or 3).

[EnderW27]

Thanks for your answer.

If it makes any difference, the limp reraiser had a pair of kings he, uh, I guess forgot to raise preflop and then decided to price everyone in with on the flop. The initial bettor had a Q, something probably like Q9. So he may very well have called two cold on the turn if I popped it then.
Or as you said, perhaps popping it on the river is the way to go though I'm going to have to think that through. I'm really not sure how much I like that play if for no other reason than, if they play back at me on the river then they would have done so on the turn giving me even more money.

[ohnonotthat]

Happy I could help



BTW, the reasons for waiting until the river to raise (and this is not a no-brainer, just an option) are -

Anyone with anything other than a busted hand will call one more bet on the river in a big pot; this is not true for the turn. If you raise the turn when there is no draw on board alot of players will release top-pair/mediocre kicker - they'll almost always make a crying call with this hand on the river.

If the river is an overcard - especially an Ace - and you toss in your first raise, an opponent with a strong hand (A-Q here, for instance) who thinks this card might have given you your first pair will often start a raising war - how great is this ?

You allow anyonw who is either bluffing (admittedly this is hard with this board) or semi-bluffing (almost as hard) to believe that firing the final missile on the river is still worthwile.

Note that there are almost no cards that can come that will take you out of the lead - assuming you were winning to begin with; this negates the need for you to protect your hand by charging the max. on the turn.



There are reasons NOT to wait [to raise] but none that strike me as compelling.

- If I overlooked any [strong reasons to pop the turn rather than wait] would someone please point them out ?

It's totally possible there is something I didn't notice here.