Can I raise this turn?

[POKhER]

You guys have gotta stop quoting the wrong people! the above post just confused the hell out of me!

[JimNashe]

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You guys have gotta stop quoting the wrong people! the above post just confused the hell out of me!

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He was quoting my question to him, and then someone else's reply that answered my question. I got it.

[POKhER]

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[ QUOTE ]
You guys have gotta stop quoting the wrong people! the above post just confused the hell out of me!

[/ QUOTE ]

He was quoting my question to him, and then someone else's reply that answered my question. I got it.

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"Re: Can I raise this turn? [Re: POKhER]
#4137959 - 12/08/05 08:39 AM "


Yeah i make alot of replys to numerous hand threads, so if a guy posts with RE:POKhER, ill assume its to me lol - Baffled me! Its a pet hate [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[waffle]

poker, they're using quick reply, which automatically replies to the post on the bottom.

--gruncher--

if we think SB is bluffing, then we should just call down. He could have a better T or even the 9, or on a bluff. Either way he's not afraid of this turn card. Also, you can't protect your tens from BB's overcards due to your relative position. I am just calling this turn, and reevaluating on the river.

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My plan:
If 3-bet, fold
If called, check behind river or fold

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Essentially, when your plan of action involves never betting the river, and there's not much chance to win the pot immediately, it's not a good time for a turn raise.

There is almost no advantage to this plan compared to just calling on the turn (again, unless you think you can pick up the pot right there). You are proposing to spend two big bets right now, with the possibility that you won't get to showdown and no possibility that you will make more bets when you are ahead. Whereas if you simply call on the turn, you can pretty much guarantee yourself a showdown for the same two bets. What's more, you might get to showdown for one big bet if you like, but if it's checked to you on the river, you can go ahead and bet to make up for the second bet on the turn. (This is where there is a slight advantage to raising the turn: if you think SB is on a heart draw, he will call your turn raise but not your river bet.) Meanwhile, if SB 3-bets you or bets the river, you are going to fold a hand that could be ahead.

The free showdown raise is best when your hand has showdown value already, but has a good chance to improve on the river. Most commonly this is because you have a pair and a draw. In that situation, you will want more than two bets going in on the turn and river when you hit your draw. So a turn raise will hopefully let you see a showdown for 2 bets when you don't hit, but make more bets when you do hit.

[27offsooot]

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In my estimation BB most likely has an overpair that he is playing cautiously. If not that then he has overcards, and they may be suited hearts.

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no.

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I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

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no.
you can't c/f when u're in position and why are u calling the turn if u're going to fold the river?

[27offsooot]

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I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

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so you advocate to call getting 10-1 on a 22-1 draw? Surely that is not good advice.

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I probably didn't express myself clearly enough. I don't advocate a call purely because I hope to catch a T, but different things might happen on the river when a non-T comes off which I think could give me equity enough to warrant a call on the turn:

1) If SB checks and BB checks, I'd check behind and win some of the time.

2) If SB checks and BB bets, I'd probably fold.

3) If SB bets, and BB folds, I might call.

4) And if SB bets and BB calls or raises, I'd definitely fold.

So my "check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off" was a gross simplification, and I've not sat down and worked out any estimates of percentages, but going by instinct a I think a call could be correct on the turn.

But I would certainly like to hear other people's analysis, as I wrote at the beginning this is a tough hand to analyze in my opinion so I could be way off.

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I don't agree with 1. You should def bet when checked to on river. 3 and 4 contradict each other. BB's decision in this hand shouldn't affect ur decision. I don't think bb ever has an overpair, so u shouldn't mind overcalling at all.

I don't mean to be harsh, but i think this is kind of weak tight.

[27offsooot]

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During the hand I was quite sure BB had a lower pair or just
overcards. I was more worried about the SB.

Just some thinking about raising vs calling, Assuming im going to showdown:


If I raise and the SB has a nine or the straight he would 3-bet, so I could fold right away, costing me 2BB.

If he has a 10, with a better kicker. My raise I might get him to fold the best hand, afraid of me having a 9 or a straight.

If he calls my raise with his good 10, he will certainly check the river if he doesnt improve. I can then check behind. So 2BB as well

If I just call, and he has a good kicker, I belive he will bet the river as well, so it would cost me 2BB to call down.

If I just call, and he has a worse kicker, he might check the river, and I will check behind gaining nothing.

But if I raise the turn and he has a worse kicker I gain.

So by raising, I could get him to fold the best hand, get him to check a better 10 on the river + get value from a worse 10.

By calling, HE would get value from a better 10, and HE will loose less with a worse 10.


???

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U do realize u have 4 outs vs. a straight right? Does that change the math?

U also should be betting this river when checked to if u don't raise.

They will never fold a better 10 at 1/2. Like ever.

No, you cant raise the turn, his prf in the BB with this many people shows a lot of strength, also, i dont like j10o there...
If you arent over pocket paired, your at least dominated...
if hes totally donking you, your just lucky