Set of tens on an uuuuuugly board

[bozlax]

I've been experiencing extreme momentary variance, today...up 10BB down 20, up 30 down 15...scary ride. So, on this one I can't decide if I'm a giant wuss, an idiot, neither or both.

I don't have enough hands on Villan to make PT reads any help.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

I'm pretty sure I'm ahead at this point, as I figger that Villan would've capped with either AA or JJ, and since we're already HU I figger he's not doing anything tricky.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Uh-oh. KQ? MUBS? Should I have capped?

River: (10.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

NOT the card I wanted to see. Now I'm sure he's being tricky, and I want a cheap showdown.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Rip away.

[macdaddy991]

UTG show AJ?

I'de bet the river, fold to a raise.

[NAU_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
MUBS?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have capped?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes.

check through on the river is fine IMO, but I'm not entirely sure about it

[numeri]

My thoughts....

pre-flop: Goot.

flop: You flop goot, too.

turn: The initial bet could mean KJ, slowplayed AJ or AT, or some bad hands. I raise here as well. After the 3-bet from an unknown HU, I just call down. Then again, I said the same on another hand and most disagreed. Weak-tight?

river: Man, reads would help. Why would he try to c/r when he put the last bet in on the turn? Weird... I check behind because I'm confused. Usually this is an easy value bet. It's two-pair more often than a straight, I think.

[Buckmulligan]

Hmm... I would either Cap the turn and call/bet the river or call the 3 bet and call/bet the river. I'd be tempted to cap because I think villain shows AT and AJ more than JJ (I'm pretty confident he doesnt have AA here)

[i wanna be me]

yeah i really can't see anything but aj here....i'd cap the turn and probably check behind on the river.

[Nutz&Boltz]

I think you played the hand well. My only question is are you following your results too closely? Decisions are important, don't worry about how many BB your up during the session.

[PokerProdigy]

Cap the turn, slowdown on the river when the king falls.

[LipBalmGuy]

I see a few possible holdings.

AJ: As others have said.

JT: Worth a raise if many stay in, but you isolated him (good job). When he got two pair on the turn, he thought he was ahead.

AK: Slow playing the flop to get an extra big bet on the turn (not realizing he's behind) maybe.

JJ: Now that would be ugly. (Also statistically unlikely.)

Last possibility: he's betting the scare card on the turn, but he'd be a really bad player to re-raise a bluff.

So, how did it turn out?

[BriPlay]

tough board.
he could be being tricky..or he could have AJ and have put you on AK..most people tend to assume teh PF raiser has AK..and he checked when K falls.
i agree with not capping turn.
id value bet flop and call
Brian