Texas Holdem Hand

Steve Giufre · #1 12-09-2005, 05:41 AM

BB is aggro but winning (28/15). BB is solid thinking player (19/10)

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Steveg12 is MP3 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, Steveg12 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG+2 calls, Steveg12 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+2 folds, Steveg12 raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Steveg12 caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Steveg12 calls, Button raises, BB 3-bets,

Now what? How about the turn so far?

calmasahinducow · #2 12-09-2005, 06:01 AM

I think the pot is large enough to call down but I don't see a hand you're beating besides AQ based on the preflop raise from the BB. You are behind JJ, QQ, AA and there's no way KK does that on the turn and AK does that on the flop from BB's perspective.

goofball · #3 12-09-2005, 06:37 AM

I'm a little iffy about the PF limp after one limper only.

Edited becaues I misread the action and though it was heads on the turn. I think you should have raised the turn. Given that you didn't, ugh. Even if BB is aggro he's gotta have a strong hand. If has a set you're dead, and if he has two pair there go 6 of your outs. Button did all that calling and now pops it I think he's got the nuts. Ugh, my mind, brain and soul all hurt as I say fold but...

Also, is BB the aggro but winning player or the solid thinking player?

etizzle · #4 12-09-2005, 06:38 AM

i must say, i've never folded a set on a rainbow board but this is the time to do it. Buttons range IMO is QJ or KT, heavily weighted towards KT both because of combinations and not 3 betting the flop. BB's range is KTs (gotta be discounted a lot), JJ, QQ, and AA.

Plug those two into pokerstove and I believe its gonna be ugly. Here ya go:

Board: 2h Jd Qh Ah
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 06.2124 % 06.21% 00.00% { 2c2d }
Hand 2: 42.7386 % 39.67% 03.07% { AA, QQ-JJ, KTs }
Hand 3: 51.0491 % 47.98% 03.07% { KTs, QJs, KTo, QJo }

I think this is a fold, and if you believe my ranges (they are pretty much a lock for button IMO), then this is a fold by a mile. Personally I would call down and be really pissed, although after this analysis I hope I would fold it.

etizzle · #5 12-09-2005, 06:39 AM

i get the feeling aggro=BB but i'm not sure

bugstud · #6 12-09-2005, 06:41 AM

can the button have Th9h here?

mc1023 · #7 12-09-2005, 07:22 AM

Bottom set with that much action on that kind of board I don't think your going to win here much based on the description of the players, their positions, and their flop actions.

clear fold IMO, your going to lose a lot of bets when behind and even when ahead you could get drawn out and really can't maximize the situation since you have to go into call-down mode at this point.

stoxtrader · #8 12-09-2005, 10:27 AM

I think you can muck, and put BB on JJ, QQ, or AA.

oreogod · #9 12-09-2005, 10:33 AM

wow. I fold.

Im assuming BB knows u, and u know BB decently well, so he must know that u have a killer hand at this point, yet keeps raising.

I hate and almost never fold a set...its rare, but I think this is the time to do it.

newhizzle · #10 12-09-2005, 10:52 AM

which ones the 28/15 (im assuming BB) and who is he?

im pretty sure id call down, but AA/KK/JJ are possibilities, as is something like AQ, if were talking about DERB here or Kukivica or something, i really dont like folding

button is also a concern, but i think he raises preflop with anything that makes a higher set and probably AQ/AJ, so its looking like he probably has the straight(assuming hes the solid one and isnt going to rase a flush draw or something in this spot) which you have the odds to draw out on, of course your outs are tainted by BB's holdings, i think this is close, i would probably end up at least seeing a river and paying off one bet if possible, but it might be a fold, i would have a hard time laying down a set in this spot, but the board does suck

edit: i think preflop is close, but a fold, i would also raise the turn