Omaha 8ob: Win %?

Been recently playing Omaha 8 or better on Paradise. Regardless of how each hand is played, what percent of hands can a guy expect to win, given the hi-lo split? I'm usually around 9% (games won), but it seems to me with 2 winners often enough, and 10 players, the average ought to be around 12 - 15%. Any comments?

[Buzz]

Bob - It's not so much the percentage of the pots that you're winning as it is the percentage of the pots you're playing that you're winning.

Low is enabled by the board about three boards out of every five. However, sometimes when low is enabled, nobody can make a low. In addition, sometimes the same person wins for low as high. Putting that together, at some tables someone scoops half the time and the other half of the pots are split. That's admittedly a very crude estimation. (At other, tighter, tables someone might be scooping 60% or more of the time).

In other words, at some tables out of every hundred pots roughly 50 of them are scoopers and the other fifty are split. That makes about 150 winners for every 100 pots. (Of course winning half or a pot is not even half as good as winning the whole pot, after you subtract your own contribution, but that does not seem to be aconsideration here).

If you played in all the pots at such a table, saw the flop every time and hung in there to the showdown, in a ten player game you would figure to win about 15% of the possible hands (assuming 150 winners for 100 pots).

In other words, if you were winning 15% of the hands that are played, you would seem to be playing all the hands that are dealt.

Therefore, if you exercise any hand selection, you should be averaging much, much less than a 15% win rate in a ten player game. The lower your win rate, the tighter your game.

There are actually two percentages to be considered. The first is the percentage of the hands you are dealt that you win. The second is the percentage of the hands you decide to see the flop with that you win. It is the second of these percentages that is some measure of your skill as a player. (To increase the percentage of the hands you are dealt that you win, you would only have to play every hand all the way to the showdown, obviously poor poker, but perhaps more fun if money doesn't matter to you).

If you're only playing 10% of the hands dealt, and if you're winning 5% of the hands dealt, then you're winning half the hands you play. And since you usually have more than one opponent, that would be a sensational (hands won)/(hands played) percentage, even though it might seem a low (hands won)/(hands dealt) percentage. Your (hands won)/(hands played) percentage is a measure of your skill as a player. Your (hands won)/(hands dealt) percentage is mainly a function of how many hands you play and then depends mainly on luck, rather than skill. The biggest fish at the table may be winning a higher percentage of hands dealt than anyone else. However, he is also losing a higher percentage of hands than anyone else.

You indicated you were winning around 9%. What percent of the hands are you playing (seeing the flop)? In a ten player game, if you are playing 60% of the hands dealt at random, then you should be averaging a 9% win rate, assuming that there are 150 winners for every 100 hands. Thus if you're playing less than 60% of the hands dealt and are averaging around 9%, then you are showing some skill in hand selection.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

Buzz-

Thanks for the great response. That is exactly the kind of information I am looking for. I've been playing the 0.50/1.00 Omaha 8ob, which doesn't get raised much preflop. I'm seeing about 40% of flops, which includes almost always the big blind for about 10%. I feel my hand selection is strong, and I win 65-70% of showdowns. But my results are meager. Once, my games won (of total dealt) reached 11% and I had a great session. That's what prompted my question. As a follow-up, is the 40% of flops seen too high?

[Buzz]

Tman - Allow me to apologize for addressing my response to "Bob."

My eyesight is sometimes fuzzy and I mis-read Omama 8oB:Win % as "Omaha Bob:Win %."

Thanks for the great response. That is exactly the kind of information I am looking for. I've been playing the 0.50/1.00 Omaha 8ob, which doesn't get raised much preflop. I'm seeing about 40% of flops, which includes almost always the big blind for about 10%. I feel my hand selection is strong, and I win 65-70% of showdowns. But my results are meager. Once, my games won (of total dealt) reached 11% and I had a great session. That's what prompted my question. As a follow-up, is the 40% of flops seen too high?

You're welcome.

After you take out your big blinds, you're really only voluntarily seeing 30% of the flops. That might be too loose for some games, but I don't think it's too loose for the game in which you're playing.

Your 11% session might have been one where you caught more than your share of good cards. Everybody has sessions where they catch more good cards than usual. Alas, they are usually balanced by sessions where the opposite is true. When the cards aren't running your way, just keep playing your game and stay alert to your opponents, rather than trying to force it by playing hands you shouldn't. You can't win much in the kind of passive game in which you're playing, but then if you play sensibly, which it sounds like you're doing, you can't lose much either.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[beetman]

I've just started keeping a database of my online play, so I only have about 3700 hands of 10 handed play in my database. I personally win without a showdown 4.4% of the time, scoop 4.3% of the time (for a total of 8.7% scooped), take 3/4ths .8% of the time, take 1/2 6.6% of the time, and take 1/4th 1% of the time. So the 9% figure sounds about right for scooping, and including the other fractions of pots yields about 13%.

I wouldn't worry if your stats are a bit different because online games can vary in their looseness/tightness. I've seen some very tight games, even in the low limits (stealing blinds in 2-4 isn't that strange), although these tight games aren't necessarily bad. (A lot of the tight players play weak-tight-bad.)

To answer your other question, I too see about 40% of the flops, but a lot of these are unraised big blinds.

Buzz - once again you provide excellent statistical analysis. There is one factor that you omitted from your analysis that is crucial to to determining a winning player. That is the size of the pot(s) you play in. This may be determined by the number of players or the number or raises during the play. Would you like to win a large number of small pots (maybe even 1/4 of some) or would you like to scoop a small number of large pots? As Mark Twain said, "ther are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics." [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[Buzz]

"There is one factor that you omitted from your analysis that is crucial to to determining a winning player. That is the size of the pot..."

iblucky4u2 - Thanks. I agree completely. The big scoopers matter much more than the small splits.

Buzz