HUMOR (long): My Bizarre Theory of Beginner's Games

[BigRedAce]

From my personal blog, not written for poker players per se, but thought 2+2ers might enjoy. Also, there's profanity, sorry but I felt it added "spice":
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Couples Poker: Looking for Order in Chaos

A relatively large group of us in the Willow Glen area of San Jose engage in a semi-monthly extravaganza called "Couples Poker". Admittedly this is not nearly as exciting as the couples parties of the mid-1970s, but then most of us already have all the Tupperware we need (thought I was going somewhere else, you sick puppy, huh?)

Couples Poker is should really be called something else since couples don't play as such and often attendees are single (or just wish they were.) Perhaps I'll come up with a snappier name for it, but for now this will do:

Short Bus Poker

If you get it, great, if not I won't explain it.

Those of us who play a lot (OK, mostly the men in the group) find this game unfathomably chaotic. We have no idea what the hell other people are playing, and as such, we find it very difficult to play our own hands. We've pondered strategies over beers from "any 2 will do" to playing unbelievably tight (i.e. only entering the pot with AA, KK, QQ, AK etc.)

You see in "real poker" your opponent (who theoretically has some basic understanding of the game, however bad), gives off clues to what they have primarily by how they bet or call. "Movie Tells", like listening to the opening of an Oreo (rent Rounders), are RARE. In "real poker", if a guy raises before the flop, he's got something. If he raises after, he thinks he's still good or at he's feigning it. Fair enough, thank you for the info.

The basic premise above is that the player has some understanding of what his/her hand is, so you- the astute player- can make a read of what he/she's got based on that understanding. This premise falls apart in Short Bus Poker because of "Mitch's Short Bus Poker Theorem #1":

"In order for you to read what a player might have, that player must be themself know what they have."

If this sounds familiar to those of you who have read some poker books, it is an homage to Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker (from his seminal work The Theory of Poker):

"Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose."

So back to my Theorem, in simpler terms, if your opponent has no [censored] clue what they've got, you sure-as-[censored] aren't going to know.


But how did I get here (hand slaps head in best David Byrne impression)? Why am I writing this? Where an I going?

Last Saturday night I dealt at a Couples Poker Night. Same group as usual, but this time me and some of my poker buddies donated our time to run the party in order to raise money for our local school system. (I guess the Governator will get around to funding the school system sooner or later- once he gets done pumping himself- but until then we need to beg.) While dealing, I got to really observe how people played. This was especially insightful when I got to see their hands in advance (I would occasionally look at the cards if a player had stepped off for a beer...I'd play their hand for them.)

This summarizes what I observed about starting cards:
- Any two cards are worth playing for virtually any raise, at least in the early rounds.
- A face card of any kind in the hole pretty great and worth playing for any amount at any time. Savvier players might fold a jack if it is not with another big card and the pot has been raised, but this is not a common occurance.
- Any two suited cards are expected to make a flush and as such, must be played.
- An Ace in the hole is the stone-cold-nuts regardless of what it is paired with.
- Nothing is worth a raise, but pretty much anything is worth a call.


Let's think about that for a moment....

Got it?

This means your opponent has any two cards that came off the deck. You haven't got a god-damned clue what is in their hand. And if you remember my first theorem, neither do they. This brings up Mitch's Second Theorem of Short Bus Poker:



"While your opponent may not know what they have, you can be sure they have any two random cards that came off the deck. No matter how much money you bet, they are just as likely to call with 7-2 as they are with A-A. Use this information wisely."

The really astute reader (or at least one that has seen Jurassic Park a few dozen times) will quickly see the parallel to chaos theory. In chaos theory, the output of a system can be wildly non-linear with the input. A butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing causes a hurricane in Texas, is the classic example. In normal poker, a large bet tends to narrow the field of hands you might compete against to ones you could readily charactize and read. An expected output to an expected input. Not so in Short Bus Poker: it is chaotic in the extreme (although I am hoping my dealing did not cause Katrina...)

On Saturday night, I saw pre-flop raises (almost always by guys with pocket pairs or big suited connectors) instantly called by many folks at the table. Callers held a variety of hands from 7-4 unsuited to A-A. I'm serious, I saw all of these. The only raise that got any respect at all was ALL-IN with a big stack (and I gotta give props to Eric S. for getting this and push with AA early in the game.)

This begs the question, why raise pre-flop at all? You're not going to get any info from the raise and you're not going to thin the field. Putting in a massive raise just builds a massive pot for someone to suck out on you with bottom 2 pair, right? Well, probably.

I think you should raise with a really good starting hand. A little nudge raise, like 3-4x the big blind should suffice. It won't get anyone out of the pot, but it will sweeten the pot if you stay ahead.

But really BIG raises? Forget it. Best case you'll be a 4-1 fav before the flop if you get everyone but one other player out (which you won't). Consider this sobering factoid:

In a random 5 way hand with AK, J10, Q9, 44 and 7-5 (offsuit) big slick (AK) is only a 5% favorite over J10 and Q9, a 9% fav over 4-4 and a little over a 2-1 fav over that skanky 7-5 off-suit. (If you change big slick to AA, you become a 2-1 favorite over everyone, but still not huge.) So how lucky are you feeling now, punk?

Restated as Mitch's 3rd Theorem of Short Bus Poker:

"If you're raising massively pre-flop to improve your odds of winning a hand, you should seek professional help immediately because you're probably hitting the meth too hard."

The corrollary to this Theorem involves bluffing:

"Oh yeah, and if you're bluffing by betting to get people out of hand, you've moved beyong meth to China White or something worse." (I will call this corrollary "Campbell's Law" in honor of who prompted me to write it.)

So your only goal pre-flop should be to sweeten the pot, not thin the field. An alien concept to many of us.

And what did I see after the flop? Behavior fell in to several categories:
- "Wow, Two (or More) of My Cards Match Two (or More) of the Cards on the Flop". This was usually characterized by calling any bet.
- "Wild Optimism". This generally occurred when no pair/draw occurred but the player still had a face card or better in their hand. It didn't generally matter if a larger face card (or Ace) was on the board. This was usually characterized by calling any bet.
- "I Don't Have a Face Card and My Cards Don't Match". This was often characterized by a call, but sometimes by a fold.


Get that? You're opponent could have the stone-cold-nuts and you'll probably only be called. Please review Theorem One. You have no [censored] clue what they have (and neither do they), right? Well, maybe not.

An example may help:

- You have JJ on the button. You nudge raise it 3x the BB and 5 people call. You have no idea what they have.
- Flop comes 6-4-10. Everyone checks (normal behavior), you raise half the pot. Three callers.
- At this point, you should be putting your players on "I got something, however small" or "I got a face card, maybe an Ace".
- Turn comes K. Everyone checks, you bet half the pot again. Two callers. You probably just got whacked by K-4 or K-6 or K-10 or 4-6 or the like.
- River comes 9, everyone checks, you go all in.
- ...and lose to 10-6.

Hopefully you missed the player with the 10-6 when you whipped your cards at him/her. Otherwise you might not get re-invited and you'll miss out on the party treats.

How would a Short Bus savvy player have lost less money on this hand (cuz you know you're gonna lose):
- Betting the innocuous flop is OK, but keep the bet pretty small, maybe 2x the BB. The calls should put up some radar.
- When the K hit, just check it. Sure, you're giving off a signal as to your hand, but who the hell is gonna pick up that transmission?
- Check the river too, if you win, great. But mostly you'll lose.


So how the hell do you play these tourneys, you might ask? Well, I think I stumbled upon the answer the other night in another SB event I played in (finished 2nd). Basically it comes down to:

- Play super-tight pre-flop. (I loosen up a little in late position if there are no serious players behind me.)
- Check or minimally bet any marginal hands you might have (top pair, boss kicker I would consider marginal).
- Value bet when you've got the nuts or close to it (top 2 pair, nut flush, boat, etc.)
- You should never get in a situation where you need to fold a big hand since no one will ever put much pressure on you.
- Avoid confrontations with experienced players or maniacs until very late in the game.

And most importantly, follow Mitch's Short Bus Theorem Number 4:

[b]"If one of the Short Busser's raises, get the [censored] out of the pot now, cuz they're packing the nuts." Couples Poker: Looking for Order in Chaos

[Richard Tanner]

Nice hand sir.

Cody

[Zetack]

*shrug* Old news man. People play bad.


This is a sweet tourney. If I got to play in it every week I'd expect to do very well. Not every week, but over time.

Also, and I know its a little silly to make serious points to a humurous post, I'll point out that in your example hand you did thin the field on the flop. Not sure how that fits in with your theories.

And why in the world would you go all in on the river on your JJ hand example? Calling stations are great, you can exploit them with little risk, why voluntarily put yourself at risk on a board with an overcard and three other players still in?

--Zetack

[Guernica4000]

"In order for you to read what a player might have, that player must know what they have."

I know exactly what you mean.

Hero has "AA" Villain "??" (Shouldn’t call her that since she is the wife of a good friend of mine) [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Flop 9 4 Q
Hero reads villain weak so I milk bet it. Villain calls.
The turn is an 8 all rainbow
Hero reads villain weak so I milk bet it again, villain calls.
The river is a 2
Hero reads villain weak so final milk bet and villain calls.

Hero proudly flips over AA villain says good hand I only have 99. Table starts to laugh as hero tells villain that her 99 and the 9 on the board make trips and that is better than AA. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

We still tease her about her fantastic "slow roll"

[Ricardido]

This post reminds me of most of my poker society friends =]
Any 2 suited especially-

i remember my friends AA busted after he raised all in and was call by 92s because he "felt they were coming out and they were suited"

[Slacker]

Funny post.

Reminds me very much of our (more or less) monthy game, which, for the most part, really is couples poker.

[Lottery Larry]

Instant classic. If we ever do a FAQ for this forum, we need to link to this.

[DyessMan89]

Why do we need to play supertight preflop? Were not afraid to be raised against these players, so were only going to be playing for one bet. (big blind w/e) If we hit a flop with our speculative preflop hand, it will certainly get payed off.

Excellent post, though.