2 Early Big XII Plays...

YTD on posted picks 5-4...Last Week 2-1

Here we go gang, BOL to everyone!

Neb (+3) @ Mizzou, this is easily my most comfortable wager of the week, after watching Nebraska put a pesky Baylor team away after giving up an early TD was verrrry impressive. If Mizzou has ANY chance whatsoever, Smith HAS to play, he suffered a mild concussion late vs ISU and freshman Daniels rallied Mizzou back from a 10 point deficit. That will not be the case this week. NU has already proven they know how to win close games winning by 1,7 (in OT), and 9. If not for a brainfart by DL Smith NU would be 6-0. This team is getting better every week and Mizzou still hasn't proven they can stop anyone, I think NU gets the run game cranked up and wins by 10+. 5 Magic Beans...

ISU (-Doesn't Matter) v. OSU, ISU pissed away a sure W last week @ Mizzou. Don't fret ISU fans, the Big 12 sacrificial lamb known as Oklahoma State get rolled into town, OSU is banged up 6 ways to Sunday and got absolutely torched last week versus A&M. ISU wins by AT LEAST 3 TD's. More plays later...

[ML4L]

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ISU (-Doesn't Matter) v. OSU

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This is the kind of stuff that gets people into trouble, IMHO. I had Iowa St. on my slate for this week, but I was looking for -10 or better. When the line came at -15.5 (down to -14.5), I had to stay away.

I agree that Ok. St. is ridiculously bad, possibly even worse than people think, but that is a huge number to cover for a team like Iowa St. that doesn't put a ton of points on the board...

ML4L

Agreed that it's a big big number for the Cyclones to cover. But if they're going to dial in a big offensive game, this will be the week to do it. After the home loss against Baylor where they lost 2 fumbles in the Baylor's red zone, also with last week's snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory. I just think ISU is poised for a quasi breakout offensive game. It'll be nice to have Stevie Hicks getting some carries as well. I just can't see OSU scoring more than 10 points.

OSU put up 31 against Mizzou, ISU put up 24. 15.5 seems like a lot of points in this spot.

Certainly valid points guys, I just like ISU to cover in a bounceback game that's all. Here's 2 more plays...

Utah St. +18.5 v. Boise State...The covering machine known as Boise State has largely disappeared this season. After struggling to put away San Jose State last week (+31) at Boise, I'm taking the points and waiting to be proven wrong.

Navy/Rice Over 56...Both teams are option-orientated teams which means that the potential for big plays is always going to be there as it forces defenses to be extremely disciplined or risk getting burned. The fact that these teams are a combined 9-1 O/U is a nice stat. This one should end up in the 60's.

Finally, fade Tulane for the rest of the year, after watching them against Houston and more importantly v. UTEP I get this impression, they're a decent ball club capable of doing some nice things on offense. But they just ran out of steam in the 2nd half. With kids all over the place and the constant grind of traveling, I just think the Waves are hitting the wall. UCF (-5) will be eager to bounce back after turning the ball over 5 times and getting pasted by USM.

Another play that bears consideration is Oregon -10 v. Arizona I believe Ore is 6-0-1 ATS and they've generally dominated 'Zona in the past. Ariz. starts a freshmen this week in attempts to spark the offense, I don't believe it's going to help.

[ML4L]

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Certainly valid points guys, I just like ISU to cover in a bounceback game that's all. Here's 2 more plays...

Utah St. +18.5 v. Boise State...The covering machine known as Boise State has largely disappeared this season. After struggling to put away San Jose State last week (+31) at Boise, I'm taking the points and waiting to be proven wrong.

Navy/Rice Over 56...Both teams are option-orientated teams which means that the potential for big plays is always going to be there as it forces defenses to be extremely disciplined or risk getting burned. The fact that these teams are a combined 9-1 O/U is a nice stat. This one should end up in the 60's.

Finally, fade Tulane for the rest of the year, after watching them against Houston and more importantly v. UTEP I get this impression, they're a decent ball club capable of doing some nice things on offense. But they just ran out of steam in the 2nd half. With kids all over the place and the constant grind of traveling, I just think the Waves are hitting the wall. UCF (-5) will be eager to bounce back after turning the ball over 5 times and getting pasted by USM.

Another play that bears consideration is Oregon -10 v. Arizona I believe Ore is 6-0-1 ATS and they've generally dominated 'Zona in the past. Ariz. starts a freshmen this week in attempts to spark the offense, I don't believe it's going to help.

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I'm currently on fewer than ten games this weekend, yet they include Oregon, Navy/Rice over, UCF, and your Nebraska pick, with Utah St. being on my "watch" list.

I suddenly don't feel as good about them as I used to... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Good luck to us both... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ML4L

One play I really like is Navy-7. Rice's D is weak, especially against the option which Navy runs very well. The public is on Rice pretty hard right now(%86 according to SB), the line opened at 8 and quickly moved to 7. I think Navy lost some credibility with their less than stellar performance against Kent St last week.

They beat a good Air Force team and should have beat Stanford. Their D should handle Rice's lackluster offense.

Prolly my biggest CFB this week.

I'm switching my ISU to a no play after doing some more research, I can't really justify laying that much chalk when there are so many more tasty matchups out there. I'm inserting UCF v. Tulane, I posted yesterday that I'll likely fade Tulane the rest of the year...so tommorrow would be a good start. BOL!

[Avatar of Wine]

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I'm switching my ISU to a no play after doing some more research, I can't really justify laying that much chalk when there are so many more tasty matchups out there.

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Some things to remember, from someone in Iowa:

-OSU's complete and utter lack of run defense is really the reason why they suck so bad on that side of the ball. ISU has a decent RB in Stevie Hicks, but the best blocking for him comes from the WR on the outside - other than the Iowa game (which was a true emotion game, on which they scored every point on turnovers) they simply haven't been overly physical on offense. I'm not sure they can exploit OSU as badly as some think.

-ISU's offense really runs through a possession passing game, in a lot of ways. Keep that in mind with relation to point 1.

-And finally . . . from my best friend, a degenerate gambler and ISU Engineering alum: "Never bet on State to cover a big line - anything greater than 7, they won't cover." The WindTunnel is not a great home facility to break a tailspin, so I'm saying no rebound game - covering the 14.5 will be difficult.

Just some thoughts . . .