Crazy hand? What's your play?

[TexTiger]

Crazy hand in a tourney tonight. I took a long time thinking about my decision on this one. Had to do a little modification on the converter. Call or not?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button (t990)
<font color="#C00000">SB (t1145)</font>
BB (t975)
<font color="#C00000">UTG (t760)</font>
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 (t395)</font>
UTG+2 (t315)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 (t807)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t3035)</font>
MP3 (t895)
CO (t3150)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t40</font>, UTG+1 calls t40, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t40, Hero calls t40, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t220) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t300</font>, MP1 calls t300, Hero calls t300, SB raises to t1145 (all-in), UTG calls 520 (all-in), UTG+1 calls 55 (all-in), MP1 calls 467 (all-in), Hero ???

[elcheapo]

what is this a joke post?? how do you not put your chips in there with those odds. 800 to win 4000-4500 or so

[TheTimeIsUp]

Easiest call ever.

[TexTiger]

I really don't think it is though. Here's my thought process before I make my decision, and maybe I'm overanalyzing it:

With all this action, I figured I was at least up against a set of J's and a set of either 6's or 5's. At this point, I have 8 outs to my nut flush, as the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is dead either in the set, or will make quads. This puts me at roughly ~3-1 to make the flush, so yes, the odds are there at 5-1. However, another legit hand could be KJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], cutting me down to 7 outs. 87d could be a legit hand as well based on the preflop action, which would give me 5 outs due to the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the hand, and the 2 that would give the straight flush, and cut the odds of my making the hand down to 5-1 or right at the odds to call. If there is another [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in either of the remaining hands, I'm down to 4 outs, and not enough odds to call.

Overanalyzing or not? I really don't have much on the reads of the opponents as it's still relatively early.


TT

[elcheapo]

If you know for sure that 2 of the players are on flushdraws then sure you can fold but considering the minimal dent in your stack at this point (25%) its a call because you can see all kinds of crazy draws etc on most sites

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Overanalyzing or not? I really don't have much on the reads of the opponents as it's still relatively early.


TT

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't give the buy-in, but yeah, you're overanalyzing it. This is early in a tournament on Party, and who knows what these goobers are jumping all in with...I don't even think you safely assume a set of jacks or another flush draw.

The fact of the matter is that (by my math) the pot now stands at a hair over t4500. It costs you t845 to call, closing the action &amp; knowing that you will get both the turn and river cards without putting another chip into the pot. If you miss, or if you hit but someone makes a better hand, then you're still in great shape with around t1900 &amp; miniscule blinds. If you hit &amp; win the pot, you're the chip leader.

BTW, am I the only one who would re-raise preflop?

[greenroom1]

I like raising with AQs in MP. Especially with 2-3 limpers in front. 5-6 handed is very difficult to play and very easy to lose. If the flop comes A X X rainbow. I don't feel as strong with a Q kicker against two pair, openeded draws, back door flushes, and random sets. I want this down to 2-3 players preflop and I want the large stack to fold. He is the only unknown. I think the play here is to reraise to 200. Without any reads I would plan on calling any all in bet except the big stack. This should make Axs and Ax fold. AK-A10s, KQs, 55s or higher would be the likely hands your were facing 3 handed. Very unlikely to be facing another diamond draw at this point. You also get the advantage that if all the late position players fold you will have position on the blinds and the early position limpers if they call. The A or Q now serve as suitable outs to any paired undercard. I think it is safer and more positive in EV played this way.

post flop: call the all in unless the big stack made the raise.