odd line at 10/20 and where it got me

[DrSavage]

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It's hard that you give "0.8" for the postflop read and in a later post admit that you don't believe this stat and from observation you think he's reasonably aggressive.

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I don't think he has a king on the flop b/c of preflop limp

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I don't agree at all. You can't easily get to 27/7 without limping plenty of kings UTG.


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This is due to the fact that i don't trust PFR % at 60 hands and don't trust AF at all pretty much. To me the order of importance was always vpip >> pfr >> AF , and is someone has a VPIP of 27 I will also assume they they have more or less conventional betting/raising standards. I will not base my decision on this few hands.
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I see the OESD that may be taking the free card and the limping kings that tend to outkick you.


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Giving a free card is a problem, but i will also charge him the absolute maximum when he does choose to keep betting and even if he takes a free turn even the most passive players will take a stab at the pot after i've checked twice on big streets (my check on the river was def. with OESD in mind), so he will pay for his draw anyway, even though he will do it on the river and not while he's drawing. Limped better kings i discount because a) I don't trust 7% pfr at 60 hands and b) even if he has a true 7% pfr that would still very likely include open-raising with better kings.
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Players like Villain often believe the free card play is the road to a cheap showdown and often foolishly raise weak pairs only to check the turn.


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And bet the river after I check again because they're silly.

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I 3-bet the flop and see what happens next.


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That's def. the default line, however the post topic had words "odd line" in them.

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The river checkraise almost looks like tilt.


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That's most definitely me expecting him to bet a busted draw or try to value bet a jack on the end.

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Straightforward play takes the money most of the time.

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Trying to play less predictable while putting your opponents on hands and thinking what is the best way to extract the most profit from every situation takes way more money.